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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Aston Villa

T U T T T

2–0

Full-time

Crystal Palace

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 27%

21%

32%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

65%

32%

Both score Ø 49%

59%

38%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 19. · Crystal Palace 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	30	3	2	+49	93
2	Man City	35	23	3	9	+57	72
3	Chelsea	35	18	6	11	+14	60
4	Leicester	34	17	8	9	+32	59
5	Man United	34	16	10	8	+26	58
6	Wolves	35	14	13	8	+11	55
7	Sheffield United	35	14	12	9	+5	54
8	Arsenal	34	12	14	8	+8	50
9	Burnley	35	14	8	13	-8	50
10	Tottenham	34	13	10	11	+8	49
11	Everton	35	12	9	14	-11	45
12	Southampton	34	13	5	16	-13	44
13	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
14	Crystal Palace	34	11	9	14	-13	42
15	Brighton	35	8	12	15	-16	36
16	West Ham	35	9	7	19	-15	34
17	Watford	35	8	10	17	-21	34
18	Bournemouth	34	7	7	20	-27	28
19	Aston Villa	34	7	6	21	-29	27
20	Norwich	35	5	6	24	-41	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	17	1	0	+34	52
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+38	41
3	Man United	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
6	Sheffield United	18	10	3	5	+10	33
7	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+11	30
8	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
9	Everton	17	8	6	3	+5	30
10	Wolves	18	7	7	4	+6	28
11	Burnley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
12	Newcastle	17	6	8	3	+3	26
13	Watford	18	6	6	6	-1	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
15	Brighton	18	5	6	7	-7	21
16	West Ham	17	5	3	9	-5	18
17	Bournemouth	17	4	6	7	-9	18
18	Aston Villa	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	18	4	3	11	-16	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	2	2	+15	41
2	Man City	18	10	1	7	+19	31
3	Chelsea	18	9	3	6	+3	30
4	Wolves	17	7	6	4	+5	27
5	Southampton	17	8	3	6	+3	27
6	Leicester	17	7	4	6	+14	25
7	Man United	17	6	5	6	+3	23
8	Burnley	18	6	5	7	-10	23
9	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
10	Arsenal	17	4	8	5	-2	20
11	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-10	20
12	Newcastle	18	5	2	11	-19	17
13	Tottenham	17	3	7	7	-7	16
14	West Ham	18	4	4	10	-10	16
15	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
16	Everton	18	4	3	11	-16	15
17	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.