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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Arsenal

S S S U T

2–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 60%

34%

86%

Points per game

1,4

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

54%

66%

Both score Ø 56%

60%

51%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

31% Possession 69%

3 Shots 24

2 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 9

8 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 13

5 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 10. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	30	3	2	+49	93
2	Man City	36	24	3	9	+58	75
3	Chelsea	36	19	6	11	+15	63
4	Leicester	35	17	8	10	+29	59
5	Man United	35	16	11	8	+26	59
6	Wolves	36	14	14	8	+11	56
7	Tottenham	36	15	10	11	+11	55
8	Sheffield United	35	14	12	9	+5	54
9	Burnley	36	14	9	13	-8	51
10	Arsenal	35	12	14	9	+7	50
11	Everton	35	12	9	14	-11	45
12	Southampton	35	13	6	16	-13	45
13	Newcastle	36	11	10	15	-18	43
14	Crystal Palace	35	11	9	15	-15	42
15	Brighton	35	8	12	15	-16	36
16	West Ham	35	9	7	19	-15	34
17	Watford	35	8	10	17	-21	34
18	Bournemouth	36	8	7	21	-25	31
19	Aston Villa	35	8	6	21	-27	30
20	Norwich	36	5	6	25	-42	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	17	1	0	+34	52
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+39	44
3	Man United	18	10	6	2	+23	36
4	Tottenham	18	11	3	4	+16	36
5	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
6	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+12	33
7	Sheffield United	18	10	3	5	+10	33
8	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
9	Everton	17	8	6	3	+5	30
10	Wolves	18	7	7	4	+6	28
11	Burnley	18	8	4	6	+2	28
12	Newcastle	18	6	8	4	+1	26
13	Watford	18	6	6	6	-1	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
15	Bournemouth	18	5	6	7	-6	21
16	Brighton	18	5	6	7	-7	21
17	Aston Villa	18	6	3	9	-9	21
18	West Ham	17	5	3	9	-5	18
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	18	4	3	11	-16	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	2	2	+15	41
2	Man City	18	10	1	7	+19	31
3	Chelsea	18	9	3	6	+3	30
4	Wolves	18	7	7	4	+5	28
5	Southampton	18	8	4	6	+3	28
6	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+11	25
7	Man United	17	6	5	6	+3	23
8	Burnley	18	6	5	7	-10	23
9	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
10	Arsenal	18	4	8	6	-3	20
11	Crystal Palace	18	5	5	8	-12	20
12	Tottenham	18	4	7	7	-5	19
13	Newcastle	18	5	2	11	-19	17
14	West Ham	18	4	4	10	-10	16
15	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
16	Everton	18	4	3	11	-16	15
17	Bournemouth	18	3	1	14	-19	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	18	1	3	14	-26	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.