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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Arsenal

S S T U U

3–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

80%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

80%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

21 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 11. · Aston Villa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Man City	6	4	1	1	+18	13
3	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	West Ham	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Tottenham	6	2	2	2	+4	8
7	Man United	6	2	2	2	+2	8
8	Burnley	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Sheffield United	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Arsenal	5	2	2	1	+0	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-3	8
13	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Everton	6	2	1	3	-4	7
15	Brighton	6	1	3	2	-3	6
16	Norwich	6	2	0	4	-5	6
17	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Wolves	6	0	4	2	-4	4
20	Watford	6	0	2	4	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+12	7
3	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Everton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	West Ham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Sheffield United	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Chelsea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-3	2
19	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	0	1	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Man United	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Watford	3	0	1	2	-9	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.