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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Man United

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Chelsea

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 61%

63%

59%

Points per game

2,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

52%

56%

Both score Ø 35%

33%

37%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 6

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	23	3	1	+59	72
2	Liverpool	28	16	9	3	+33	57
3	Man United	27	17	5	5	+32	56
4	Tottenham	28	16	7	5	+29	55
5	Chelsea	27	16	5	6	+26	53
6	Arsenal	27	13	6	8	+15	45
7	Burnley	28	9	10	9	-3	37
8	Leicester	28	9	9	10	-1	36
9	Everton	28	9	7	12	-15	34
10	Watford	28	9	6	13	-9	33
11	Bournemouth	28	8	8	12	-10	32
12	Brighton	28	7	10	11	-11	31
13	West Ham	28	7	9	12	-15	30
14	Huddersfield	28	8	6	14	-23	30
15	Newcastle	28	7	8	13	-11	29
16	Southampton	28	5	12	11	-12	27
17	Crystal Palace	28	6	9	13	-18	27
18	Swansea	28	7	6	15	-20	27
19	Stoke	28	6	8	14	-26	26
20	West Brom	28	3	11	14	-20	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	1	0	+40	40
2	Man United	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	32
4	Tottenham	14	9	4	1	+20	31
5	Liverpool	14	8	6	0	+21	30
6	Chelsea	14	9	2	3	+14	29
7	Everton	14	8	2	4	+5	26
8	Leicester	14	6	4	4	+4	22
9	Brighton	14	5	6	3	-1	21
10	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	West Ham	13	5	4	4	-1	19
12	Burnley	14	5	4	5	-1	19
13	Watford	14	5	4	5	-5	19
14	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
15	Huddersfield	14	5	4	5	-5	19
16	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-4	17
17	Swansea	14	5	2	7	-7	17
18	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-3	16
19	Southampton	15	3	6	6	-5	15
20	West Brom	14	2	7	5	-5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Liverpool	14	8	3	3	+12	27
3	Chelsea	13	7	3	3	+12	24
4	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+9	24
5	Man United	14	7	3	4	+8	24
6	Burnley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
7	Watford	14	4	2	8	-4	14
8	Leicester	14	3	5	6	-5	14
9	Arsenal	14	3	4	7	-7	13
10	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-8	13
11	Bournemouth	14	3	4	7	-9	13
12	Southampton	13	2	6	5	-7	12
13	West Ham	15	2	5	8	-14	11
14	Huddersfield	14	3	2	9	-18	11
15	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Swansea	14	2	4	8	-13	10
17	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-14	10
18	Everton	14	1	5	8	-20	8
19	West Brom	14	1	4	9	-15	7
20	Stoke	14	1	4	9	-21	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.