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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Chaves

T U S T S

2–0

Full-time

Estoril

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 33%

39%

26%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

48%

61%

Both score Ø 44%

48%

39%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

5 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 10

10 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 6. · Estoril 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	23	19	4	0	+50	61
2	Benfica	24	18	5	1	+46	59
3	Sp Lisbon	23	17	5	1	+33	56
4	Sp Braga	23	16	1	6	+25	49
5	Rio Ave	24	11	4	9	+0	37
6	Chaves	23	9	6	8	-6	33
7	Maritimo	24	9	6	9	-9	33
8	Boavista	23	9	3	11	-9	30
9	Guimaraes	24	9	2	13	-14	29
10	Portimonense	23	7	6	10	-1	27
11	Belenenses	24	7	6	11	-12	27
12	Tondela	23	7	4	12	-9	25
13	Aves	24	5	7	12	-11	22
14	Vitoria Setubal	23	4	9	10	-14	21
15	Pacos Ferreira	24	5	6	13	-18	21
16	Estoril	23	6	3	14	-21	21
17	Feirense	24	6	2	16	-14	20
18	Moreirense	23	4	7	12	-16	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+32	34
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+22	32
3	Benfica	11	10	1	0	+30	31
4	Sp Braga	12	10	0	2	+20	30
5	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+4	24
6	Rio Ave	12	7	2	3	+9	23
7	Boavista	11	7	0	4	+0	21
8	Belenenses	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	-6	19
10	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+5	17
11	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	5	3	+1	17
12	Pacos Ferreira	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Chaves	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Estoril	12	4	1	7	-6	13
15	Feirense	12	4	1	7	-6	13
16	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-6	11
17	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Aves	12	2	3	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	8	4	1	+16	28
2	Porto	11	8	3	0	+18	27
3	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+11	24
4	Sp Braga	11	6	1	4	+5	19
5	Chaves	12	6	1	5	-5	19
6	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-3	14
7	Rio Ave	12	4	2	6	-9	14
8	Aves	12	3	4	5	-3	13
9	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
10	Guimaraes	13	3	1	9	-8	10
11	Moreirense	11	3	1	7	-9	10
12	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-9	9
13	Maritimo	12	2	3	7	-13	9
14	Belenenses	12	2	2	8	-14	8
15	Estoril	11	2	2	7	-15	8
16	Feirense	12	2	1	9	-8	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-16	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	11	0	4	7	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.