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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Man City

S S S T S

5–0

Full-time

Swansea

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 55%

85%

24%

Points per game

2,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

73%

36%

Both score Ø 49%

55%

42%

Average goals

3,6

2,2

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

82% Possession 18%

19 Shots 4

12 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 1

4 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Swansea 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	33	28	3	2	+68	87
2	Man United	34	23	5	6	+39	74
3	Liverpool	35	20	11	4	+43	71
4	Tottenham	34	20	8	6	+35	68
5	Chelsea	34	19	6	9	+25	63
6	Arsenal	34	17	6	11	+20	57
7	Burnley	35	14	11	10	+3	53
8	Leicester	34	11	11	12	+2	44
9	Everton	34	11	9	14	-15	42
10	Newcastle	33	11	8	14	-7	41
11	Bournemouth	35	9	11	15	-17	38
12	Watford	35	10	8	17	-18	38
13	Brighton	34	8	12	14	-15	36
14	Crystal Palace	35	8	11	16	-18	35
15	West Ham	34	8	11	15	-21	35
16	Huddersfield	34	9	8	17	-27	35
17	Swansea	33	8	9	16	-19	33
18	Southampton	34	5	14	15	-20	29
19	Stoke	35	6	11	18	-33	29
20	West Brom	35	4	13	18	-25	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	44
2	Man City	16	14	1	1	+40	43
3	Man United	17	13	2	2	+27	41
4	Liverpool	17	11	6	0	+31	39
5	Tottenham	16	10	4	2	+20	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	+5	30
8	Brighton	18	6	8	4	-2	26
9	Newcastle	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	Burnley	17	7	4	6	+0	25
11	Leicester	17	6	6	5	+3	24
12	Watford	18	6	6	6	-5	24
13	West Ham	16	6	5	5	-1	23
14	Bournemouth	18	6	5	7	-5	23
15	Huddersfield	17	6	5	6	-6	23
16	Swansea	16	6	3	7	-4	21
17	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-5	20
18	Stoke	18	5	5	8	-9	20
19	Southampton	17	3	7	7	-6	16
20	West Brom	18	2	9	7	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	14	2	1	+28	44
2	Tottenham	18	10	4	4	+15	34
3	Man United	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+12	32
5	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+12	30
6	Burnley	18	7	7	4	+3	28
7	Leicester	17	5	5	7	-1	20
8	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-9	16
9	Bournemouth	17	3	6	8	-12	15
10	Crystal Palace	18	3	6	9	-13	15
11	Watford	17	4	2	11	-13	14
12	Arsenal	16	3	4	9	-9	13
13	Southampton	17	2	7	8	-14	13
14	Swansea	17	2	6	9	-15	12
15	West Ham	18	2	6	10	-20	12
16	Everton	17	2	6	9	-20	12
17	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
18	Brighton	16	2	4	10	-13	10
19	West Brom	17	2	4	11	-16	10
20	Stoke	17	1	6	10	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.