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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Tondela

U T U U U

3–0

Full-time

Aves

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 25%

27%

23%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

43%

47%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

7 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 10

16 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Aves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	31	24	5	2	+58	77
2	Porto	30	24	4	2	+57	76
3	Sp Braga	31	23	2	6	+45	71
4	Sp Lisbon	30	22	5	3	+38	71
5	Rio Ave	30	13	5	12	-3	44
6	Maritimo	31	12	8	11	-10	44
7	Boavista	30	11	5	14	-10	38
8	Chaves	30	10	8	12	-12	38
9	Guimaraes	31	11	4	16	-14	37
10	Portimonense	30	9	8	13	-7	35
11	Belenenses	31	8	10	13	-12	34
12	Tondela	30	8	8	14	-9	32
13	Vitoria Setubal	30	6	11	13	-17	29
14	Moreirense	30	7	8	15	-17	29
15	Pacos Ferreira	31	7	8	16	-23	29
16	Aves	30	7	7	16	-15	28
17	Feirense	31	8	3	20	-17	27
18	Estoril	31	7	5	19	-32	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	14	1	0	+37	43
2	Sp Braga	16	14	0	2	+27	42
3	Sp Lisbon	15	13	2	0	+27	41
4	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+38	40
5	Maritimo	15	9	4	2	+9	31
6	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+12	30
7	Boavista	15	9	2	4	+5	29
8	Guimaraes	15	8	3	4	-2	27
9	Belenenses	15	6	5	4	+3	23
10	Portimonense	15	7	2	6	+2	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-3	23
12	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	6	4	+1	21
13	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-4	20
14	Chaves	15	4	6	5	-3	18
15	Moreirense	15	4	6	5	-3	18
16	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Aves	15	4	3	8	-7	15
18	Estoril	16	4	3	9	-13	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	11	4	1	+20	37
2	Porto	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Sp Lisbon	15	9	3	3	+11	30
4	Sp Braga	15	9	2	4	+18	29
5	Chaves	15	6	2	7	-9	20
6	Tondela	15	4	5	6	-4	17
7	Rio Ave	15	4	2	9	-15	14
8	Aves	15	3	4	8	-8	13
9	Maritimo	16	3	4	9	-19	13
10	Portimonense	15	2	6	7	-9	12
11	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-14	11
12	Belenenses	16	2	5	9	-15	11
13	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-19	11
14	Guimaraes	16	3	1	12	-12	10
15	Boavista	15	2	3	10	-15	9
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	1	5	9	-18	8
17	Feirense	15	2	1	12	-13	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.