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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Man City

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Swansea

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 40%

60%

20%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

60%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,4

Scored

2,0

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	9	5	1	+11	32
2	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+14	30
3	Man City	15	9	2	4	+14	29
4	Man United	15	8	5	2	+10	29
5	Tottenham	15	6	8	1	+13	26
6	Everton	16	5	8	3	+8	23
7	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+5	23
8	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Liverpool	15	6	5	4	+1	23
10	Watford	15	6	4	5	+1	22
11	Stoke	15	6	4	5	-1	22
12	Southampton	15	5	6	4	+3	21
13	West Brom	15	5	4	6	-5	19
14	Chelsea	15	4	3	8	-7	15
15	Swansea	15	3	5	7	-8	14
16	Norwich	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Bournemouth	15	3	4	8	-12	13
18	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-14	13
19	Sunderland	15	3	3	9	-12	12
20	Aston Villa	15	1	3	11	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+13	18
2	Tottenham	8	4	4	0	+9	16
3	Man United	7	4	3	0	+8	15
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+2	14
6	Everton	8	3	3	2	+5	12
7	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+2	11
8	Watford	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-1	11
10	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	+2	10
11	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	+1	9
14	West Ham	7	2	3	2	+1	9
15	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	9
17	Sunderland	7	2	2	3	+1	8
18	West Brom	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	8	5	3	0	+9	18
2	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+8	16
3	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
4	Man United	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	+2	12
7	Stoke	8	3	3	2	-1	12
8	Everton	8	2	5	1	+3	11
9	Watford	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Man City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	West Brom	7	3	2	2	-1	11
12	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
13	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
14	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Chelsea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-9	5
18	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-10	4
19	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-13	4
20	Newcastle	7	1	1	5	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.