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Championship

Referee: Eddie Ilderton

Derby

U S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Cardiff

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

0,7

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

0,7

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

38%

25%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,1

1,8

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

20 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Cardiff 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	17	10	5	2	+18	35
2	Middlesbrough	17	10	3	4	+13	33
3	Brighton	15	9	6	0	+9	33
4	Burnley	16	9	5	2	+9	32
5	Derby	16	8	6	2	+11	30
6	Birmingham	16	8	4	4	+7	28
7	Cardiff	16	6	7	3	+5	25
8	Reading	16	6	6	4	+6	24
9	Ipswich	16	6	6	4	+0	24
10	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+1	23
11	Brentford	16	6	3	7	-2	21
12	Fulham	16	5	5	6	+1	20
13	QPR	17	5	5	7	-3	20
14	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-1	19
15	Leeds	16	4	7	5	-3	19
16	Blackburn	16	3	8	5	+0	17
17	Preston	16	3	8	5	-2	17
18	Nott'm Forest	16	4	5	7	-4	17
19	Bristol City	17	3	7	7	-9	16
20	Huddersfield	16	3	6	7	-7	15
21	Milton Keynes Dons	16	4	2	10	-9	14
22	Charlton	16	3	4	9	-12	13
23	Bolton	16	1	8	7	-12	11
24	Rotherham	16	2	3	11	-16	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Hull	8	6	2	0	+13	20
3	Brighton	8	6	2	0	+6	20
4	Burnley	8	6	1	1	+8	19
5	Cardiff	8	5	2	1	+6	17
6	Derby	8	4	3	1	+7	15
7	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Reading	8	3	4	1	+6	13
9	QPR	8	3	4	1	+5	13
10	Ipswich	8	3	4	1	+4	13
11	Fulham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Charlton	8	3	2	3	-2	11
14	Blackburn	8	2	4	2	+3	10
15	Brentford	8	3	1	4	-4	10
16	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	+0	9
17	Bolton	8	1	6	1	+0	9
18	Wolves	8	2	3	3	-1	9
19	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	8	3	0	5	-3	9
21	Bristol City	9	2	3	4	-5	9
22	Preston	8	1	5	2	-1	8
23	Leeds	8	1	3	4	-5	6
24	Rotherham	8	1	2	5	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+8	17
2	Hull	9	4	3	2	+5	15
3	Derby	8	4	3	1	+4	15
4	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	13
5	Leeds	8	3	4	1	+2	13
6	Burnley	8	3	4	1	+1	13
7	Brentford	8	3	2	3	+2	11
8	Reading	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Ipswich	8	3	2	3	-4	11
11	Wolves	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Fulham	8	2	3	3	+1	9
13	Preston	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Sheffield Weds	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Cardiff	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Nott'm Forest	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Blackburn	8	1	4	3	-3	7
18	Bristol City	8	1	4	3	-4	7
19	QPR	9	2	1	6	-8	7
20	Huddersfield	8	1	3	4	-7	6
21	Milton Keynes Dons	8	1	2	5	-6	5
22	Rotherham	8	1	1	6	-7	4
23	Charlton	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Bolton	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.