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Championship

Referee: Andy Woolmer

Bristol City

T T S U T

1–1

Full-time

Derby

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,0

1,2

Scored

1,5

0,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

43%

14%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

71%

Both score Ø 36%

71%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

1,6

0,1

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

17 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 13. · Derby 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	7	5	1	1	+4	16
2	Newcastle	7	5	0	2	+12	15
3	Barnsley	7	5	0	2	+9	15
4	Norwich	7	4	2	1	+3	14
5	Birmingham	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Brentford	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Ipswich	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+0	11
11	Sheffield Weds	7	3	2	2	-1	11
12	Reading	7	3	2	2	-2	11
13	Bristol City	7	3	1	3	+1	10
14	Leeds	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	QPR	7	3	1	3	-3	10
16	Burton Albion	7	2	3	2	+1	9
17	Wolves	7	2	3	2	-1	9
18	Aston Villa	7	1	4	2	+0	7
19	Preston	7	2	0	5	+0	6
20	Rotherham	7	1	3	3	-9	6
21	Derby	7	1	2	4	-5	5
22	Cardiff	8	1	2	5	-8	5
23	Wigan	7	1	1	5	-2	4
24	Blackburn	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Barnsley	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Nott'm Forest	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Huddersfield	3	3	0	0	+3	9
6	Sheffield Weds	4	3	0	1	+1	9
7	Reading	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	7
10	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Aston Villa	4	1	3	0	+3	6
12	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Burton Albion	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Rotherham	4	1	3	0	+1	6
15	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-2	5
17	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+2	4
18	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
19	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	4
21	Preston	4	1	0	3	+0	3
22	Cardiff	4	1	0	3	-4	3
23	Derby	4	0	2	2	-3	2
24	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	QPR	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Leeds	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Ipswich	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Preston	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Burton Albion	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Reading	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-4	2
21	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-3	1
22	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Wigan	4	0	0	4	-4	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.