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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Aston Villa

S S S S U

1–3

Full-time

Reading

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Championship · 41/38 matches

Win Ø 46%

37%

55%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

27%

58%

Both score Ø 49%

44%

53%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Reading 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	42	27	8	7	+36	89
2	Newcastle	42	26	7	9	+39	85
3	Huddersfield	38	23	5	10	+7	74
4	Leeds	42	22	7	13	+16	73
5	Reading	38	21	7	10	+4	70
6	Fulham	40	18	13	9	+18	67
7	Sheffield Weds	40	19	9	12	+10	66
8	Derby	42	17	11	14	+3	62
9	Preston	42	16	13	13	+7	61
10	Norwich	42	17	9	16	+8	60
11	Brentford	42	17	8	17	+10	59
12	Aston Villa	41	15	13	13	+3	58
13	Barnsley	42	15	11	16	+1	56
14	Cardiff	42	15	10	17	-3	55
15	Ipswich	42	12	16	14	-7	52
16	Wolves	41	14	9	18	-3	51
17	QPR	42	14	8	20	-9	50
18	Bristol City	42	13	8	21	-7	47
19	Birmingham	42	11	14	17	-19	47
20	Nott'm Forest	42	12	9	21	-11	45
21	Burton Albion	42	11	12	19	-15	45
22	Blackburn	42	10	13	19	-15	43
23	Wigan	42	10	10	22	-15	40
24	Rotherham	42	4	6	32	-58	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	21	16	3	2	+32	51
2	Leeds	21	14	3	4	+17	45
3	Reading	20	13	5	2	+16	44
4	Huddersfield	19	14	2	3	+14	44
5	Norwich	21	13	4	4	+27	43
6	Newcastle	21	13	3	5	+20	42
7	Sheffield Weds	20	13	2	5	+12	41
8	Aston Villa	20	11	7	2	+14	40
9	Preston	21	11	5	5	+16	38
10	Derby	21	10	7	4	+11	37
11	Brentford	21	10	5	6	+17	35
12	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+8	34
13	Bristol City	21	10	4	7	+7	34
14	Cardiff	21	10	4	7	+6	34
15	Fulham	20	8	7	5	+6	31
16	Ipswich	21	7	10	4	+5	31
17	Burton Albion	21	8	4	9	-1	28
18	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	-2	28
19	QPR	21	8	4	9	-3	28
20	Barnsley	21	6	9	6	-1	27
21	Birmingham	21	7	5	9	-6	26
22	Wolves	20	7	3	10	-5	24
23	Wigan	21	5	6	10	-7	21
24	Rotherham	21	4	5	12	-12	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	21	13	4	4	+19	43
2	Brighton	21	11	5	5	+4	38
3	Fulham	20	10	6	4	+12	36
4	Huddersfield	19	9	3	7	-7	30
5	Barnsley	21	9	2	10	+2	29
6	Leeds	21	8	4	9	-1	28
7	Wolves	21	7	6	8	+2	27
8	Reading	18	8	2	8	-12	26
9	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	-2	25
10	Derby	21	7	4	10	-8	25
11	Brentford	21	7	3	11	-7	24
12	Preston	21	5	8	8	-9	23
13	QPR	21	6	4	11	-6	22
14	Cardiff	21	5	6	10	-9	21
15	Ipswich	21	5	6	10	-12	21
16	Birmingham	21	4	9	8	-13	21
17	Wigan	21	5	4	12	-8	19
18	Aston Villa	21	4	6	11	-11	18
19	Burton Albion	21	3	8	10	-14	17
20	Norwich	21	4	5	12	-19	17
21	Blackburn	21	3	6	12	-13	15
22	Bristol City	21	3	4	14	-14	13
23	Nott'm Forest	21	2	5	14	-19	11
24	Rotherham	21	0	1	20	-46	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.