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Championship

Referee: Robert Jones

Bolton

S U T U U

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Championship · 37/34 matches

Win Ø 38%

22%

53%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

35%

53%

Both score Ø 48%

46%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 20. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	38	25	7	6	+36	82
2	Cardiff	37	23	7	7	+27	76
3	Fulham	35	18	11	6	+25	65
4	Aston Villa	34	18	8	8	+23	62
5	Derby	35	16	13	6	+22	61
6	Middlesbrough	36	18	7	11	+19	61
7	Bristol City	38	16	13	9	+12	61
8	Preston	38	15	15	8	+11	60
9	Sheffield United	38	18	6	14	+8	60
10	Millwall	38	15	13	10	+9	58
11	Brentford	38	14	12	12	+8	54
12	Ipswich	38	15	7	16	-1	52
13	Norwich	38	13	13	12	-3	52
14	Leeds	38	14	8	16	-3	50
15	QPR	38	12	11	15	-10	47
16	Nott'm Forest	38	13	7	18	-11	46
17	Sheffield Weds	38	9	14	15	-11	41
18	Hull	38	9	12	17	-6	39
19	Reading	38	8	12	18	-13	36
20	Bolton	37	8	12	17	-24	36
21	Barnsley	38	7	12	19	-19	33
22	Birmingham	38	9	6	23	-29	33
23	Burton Albion	38	7	9	22	-40	30
24	Sunderland	38	5	13	20	-30	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	19	14	3	2	+25	45
2	Cardiff	19	14	3	2	+22	45
3	Fulham	18	10	6	2	+19	36
4	Sheffield United	19	11	3	5	+13	36
5	Middlesbrough	18	11	3	4	+13	36
6	Aston Villa	17	10	5	2	+17	35
7	Bristol City	19	10	5	4	+13	35
8	Millwall	19	9	7	3	+10	34
9	Derby	17	9	5	3	+16	32
10	QPR	19	9	5	5	+1	32
11	Brentford	19	7	9	3	+11	30
12	Ipswich	19	8	4	7	+5	28
13	Preston	19	7	7	5	+3	28
14	Leeds	19	7	5	7	+1	26
15	Norwich	19	6	8	5	+1	26
16	Nott'm Forest	19	8	2	9	-5	26
17	Hull	19	6	7	6	+8	25
18	Bolton	18	7	4	7	-3	25
19	Birmingham	19	7	2	10	-7	23
20	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-3	22
21	Reading	19	3	7	9	-8	16
22	Barnsley	19	3	7	9	-10	16
23	Sunderland	19	2	6	11	-16	12
24	Burton Albion	19	2	4	13	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	19	11	4	4	+11	37
2	Preston	19	8	8	3	+8	32
3	Cardiff	18	9	4	5	+5	31
4	Fulham	17	8	5	4	+6	29
5	Derby	18	7	8	3	+6	29
6	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+6	27
7	Bristol City	19	6	8	5	-1	26
8	Norwich	19	7	5	7	-4	26
9	Middlesbrough	18	7	4	7	+6	25
10	Millwall	19	6	6	7	-1	24
11	Brentford	19	7	3	9	-3	24
12	Leeds	19	7	3	9	-4	24
13	Sheffield United	19	7	3	9	-5	24
14	Ipswich	19	7	3	9	-6	24
15	Reading	19	5	5	9	-5	20
16	Nott'm Forest	19	5	5	9	-6	20
17	Burton Albion	19	5	5	9	-17	20
18	Sheffield Weds	19	4	7	8	-8	19
19	Barnsley	19	4	5	10	-9	17
20	Sunderland	19	3	7	9	-14	16
21	QPR	19	3	6	10	-11	15
22	Hull	19	3	5	11	-14	14
23	Bolton	19	1	8	10	-21	11
24	Birmingham	19	2	4	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.