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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

T S T S S

0–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 47%

55%

38%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

55%

43%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 5

21 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 4. · Nott'm Forest 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	13	5	4	+14	44
2	Leeds	21	12	6	3	+15	42
3	West Brom	21	11	5	5	+15	38
4	Derby	20	11	4	5	+10	37
5	Sheffield United	22	11	4	7	+9	37
6	Middlesbrough	22	9	9	4	+8	36
7	Nott'm Forest	21	8	10	3	+10	34
8	Aston Villa	21	8	8	5	+9	32
9	Swansea	22	9	5	8	+3	32
10	Birmingham	22	7	10	5	+5	31
11	Stoke	22	7	10	5	+2	31
12	Blackburn	22	7	10	5	-4	31
13	QPR	22	9	4	9	-5	31
14	Bristol City	22	8	6	8	+1	30
15	Preston	22	7	7	8	-2	28
16	Wigan	22	7	4	11	-7	25
17	Hull	22	6	6	10	-7	24
18	Sheffield Weds	22	6	6	10	-12	24
19	Brentford	22	5	7	10	-1	22
20	Rotherham	22	4	10	8	-11	22
21	Reading	22	4	7	11	-8	19
22	Millwall	22	4	7	11	-10	19
23	Bolton	22	4	6	12	-15	18
24	Ipswich	22	2	8	12	-19	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
2	Norwich	11	8	0	3	+5	24
3	Wigan	11	6	3	2	+5	21
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+13	20
5	Aston Villa	11	5	5	1	+7	20
6	Derby	9	6	2	1	+7	20
7	Preston	11	5	4	2	+8	19
8	Nott'm Forest	11	5	4	2	+4	19
9	Middlesbrough	11	5	4	2	+4	19
10	QPR	11	6	1	4	+3	19
11	Birmingham	11	4	6	1	+7	18
12	Sheffield United	11	5	3	3	+5	18
13	Blackburn	11	4	6	1	+3	18
14	Rotherham	11	4	6	1	+3	18
15	Stoke	11	5	3	3	+3	18
16	Brentford	11	5	2	4	+7	17
17	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+3	17
18	Millwall	11	4	4	3	+2	16
19	Sheffield Weds	11	3	5	3	-3	14
20	Bristol City	11	3	4	4	+0	13
21	Hull	11	3	3	5	-2	12
22	Reading	11	3	2	6	-1	11
23	Ipswich	11	1	6	4	-5	9
24	Bolton	11	2	2	7	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	11	5	5	1	+9	20
2	Sheffield United	11	6	1	4	+4	19
3	Leeds	10	5	3	2	+3	18
4	West Brom	11	5	3	3	+2	18
5	Middlesbrough	11	4	5	2	+4	17
6	Derby	11	5	2	4	+3	17
7	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+1	17
8	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+6	15
9	Swansea	11	4	3	4	+0	15
10	Stoke	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Birmingham	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Blackburn	11	3	4	4	-7	13
13	Aston Villa	10	3	3	4	+2	12
14	Hull	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	QPR	11	3	3	5	-8	12
16	Bolton	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Sheffield Weds	11	3	1	7	-9	10
18	Preston	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Reading	11	1	5	5	-7	8
20	Brentford	11	0	5	6	-8	5
21	Ipswich	11	1	2	8	-14	5
22	Wigan	11	1	1	9	-12	4
23	Rotherham	11	0	4	7	-14	4
24	Millwall	11	0	3	8	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.