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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Derby

U T T S U

0–0

Full-time

Stoke

U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Championship · 33/36 matches

Win Ø 37%

45%

28%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

45%

36%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

19 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Stoke 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	36	21	9	6	+27	72
2	Sheffield United	37	21	8	8	+29	71
3	Leeds	35	20	7	8	+20	67
4	Middlesbrough	35	15	13	7	+13	58
5	West Brom	34	16	9	9	+18	57
6	Derby	33	15	10	8	+11	55
7	Bristol City	36	15	10	11	+7	55
8	Nott'm Forest	36	13	14	9	+10	53
9	Sheffield Weds	37	13	13	11	-5	52
10	Preston	36	13	12	11	+6	51
11	Birmingham	36	12	14	10	+7	50
12	Hull	36	14	8	14	-1	50
13	Brentford	36	13	10	13	+11	49
14	Aston Villa	33	11	14	8	+7	47
15	Swansea	35	13	8	14	+2	47
16	Blackburn	37	12	11	14	-6	47
17	Stoke	36	10	15	11	-5	45
18	QPR	36	12	7	17	-13	43
19	Reading	37	8	12	17	-16	36
20	Wigan	37	9	9	19	-19	36
21	Millwall	36	8	10	18	-16	34
22	Rotherham	36	6	15	15	-21	33
23	Bolton	37	7	8	22	-34	29
24	Ipswich	37	3	14	20	-32	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	19	13	3	3	+22	42
2	Norwich	18	12	2	4	+11	38
3	Brentford	18	11	3	4	+21	36
4	Leeds	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Nott'm Forest	18	10	4	4	+11	34
6	Derby	17	9	6	2	+10	33
7	Hull	18	9	4	5	+13	31
8	Blackburn	19	8	6	5	+8	30
9	Wigan	18	8	6	4	+3	30
10	Sheffield Weds	18	7	8	3	+3	29
11	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
12	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+2	28
13	West Brom	17	7	6	4	+13	27
14	Preston	18	6	9	3	+9	27
15	Middlesbrough	17	7	6	4	+6	27
16	Bristol City	19	7	6	6	+3	27
17	QPR	18	8	3	7	+2	27
18	Birmingham	18	6	8	4	+8	26
19	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
20	Rotherham	18	6	8	4	-2	26
21	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
22	Reading	19	6	4	9	-4	22
23	Bolton	19	4	4	11	-16	16
24	Ipswich	18	2	9	7	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	9	7	2	+16	34
2	Middlesbrough	18	8	7	3	+7	31
3	Leeds	18	9	4	5	+5	31
4	West Brom	17	9	3	5	+5	30
5	Sheffield United	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+4	28
7	Birmingham	18	6	6	6	-1	24
8	Preston	18	7	3	8	-3	24
9	Sheffield Weds	19	6	5	8	-8	23
10	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
11	Aston Villa	17	5	6	6	+0	21
12	Nott'm Forest	18	3	10	5	-1	19
13	Swansea	18	5	4	9	-4	19
14	Hull	18	5	4	9	-14	19
15	Stoke	18	2	11	5	-7	17
16	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-14	17
17	QPR	18	4	4	10	-15	16
18	Reading	18	2	8	8	-12	14
19	Brentford	18	2	7	9	-10	13
20	Bolton	18	3	4	11	-18	13
21	Millwall	18	2	4	12	-14	10
22	Ipswich	19	1	5	13	-25	8
23	Rotherham	18	0	7	11	-19	7
24	Wigan	19	1	3	15	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.