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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Ipswich

T T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Stoke

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 19%

28%

Points per game

0,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

38%

41%

Both score Ø 46%

47%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 24. · Stoke 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	32	17	9	6	+19	60
2	Sheffield United	32	17	7	8	+20	58
3	Leeds	30	16	7	7	+12	55
4	West Brom	30	15	8	7	+22	53
5	Bristol City	31	15	8	8	+10	53
6	Derby	29	14	9	6	+12	51
7	Middlesbrough	31	13	12	6	+11	51
8	Birmingham	32	11	13	8	+9	46
9	Nott'm Forest	32	11	13	8	+8	46
10	Hull	32	12	8	12	+3	44
11	Swansea	32	12	8	12	+3	44
12	Aston Villa	31	10	13	8	+6	43
13	Preston	32	11	10	11	+3	43
14	Blackburn	32	11	10	11	-6	43
15	Sheffield Weds	32	10	11	11	-11	41
16	Brentford	31	10	10	11	+7	40
17	Stoke	32	9	12	11	-7	39
18	QPR	31	11	6	14	-8	39
19	Wigan	32	9	7	16	-14	34
20	Millwall	31	7	10	14	-11	31
21	Reading	32	6	11	15	-11	29
22	Rotherham	33	5	14	14	-20	29
23	Bolton	32	6	8	18	-26	26
24	Ipswich	32	3	10	19	-31	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	16	10	3	3	+14	33
2	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+9	32
3	Brentford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
4	Leeds	15	9	3	3	+10	30
5	Derby	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+7	28
7	Wigan	16	8	4	4	+3	28
8	Blackburn	16	7	6	3	+7	27
9	West Brom	15	7	5	3	+14	26
10	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
11	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+5	26
12	Hull	16	7	4	5	+10	25
13	Preston	16	6	7	3	+9	25
14	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+9	25
15	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
16	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+5	24
17	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+2	24
18	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+0	24
19	QPR	15	7	2	6	+2	23
20	Rotherham	17	5	8	4	-3	23
21	Sheffield Weds	15	5	7	3	-1	22
22	Reading	16	5	3	8	-2	18
23	Ipswich	16	2	8	6	-6	14
24	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	7	7	2	+10	28
2	West Brom	15	8	3	4	+8	27
3	Middlesbrough	16	7	6	3	+6	27
4	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Sheffield United	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
7	Derby	15	6	4	5	+2	22
8	Birmingham	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Swansea	16	5	4	7	-1	19
10	Hull	16	5	4	7	-7	19
11	Sheffield Weds	17	5	4	8	-10	19
12	Nott'm Forest	16	3	9	4	+1	18
13	Preston	16	5	3	8	-6	18
14	Aston Villa	15	4	5	6	-1	17
15	QPR	16	4	4	8	-10	16
16	Blackburn	16	4	4	8	-13	16
17	Stoke	16	2	9	5	-7	15
18	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-15	13
19	Reading	16	1	8	7	-9	11
20	Brentford	15	1	7	7	-7	10
21	Millwall	15	1	4	10	-13	7
22	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
23	Rotherham	16	0	6	10	-17	6
24	Ipswich	16	1	2	13	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.