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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

S U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 32/35 matches

Win Ø 41%

47%

34%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

47%

57%

Both score Ø 62%

63%

60%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Sheffield Weds 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	36	21	9	6	+27	72
2	Sheffield United	36	20	8	8	+27	68
3	Leeds	33	18	7	8	+16	61
4	Middlesbrough	34	15	13	6	+14	58
5	West Brom	33	16	8	9	+18	56
6	Derby	32	15	9	8	+11	54
7	Bristol City	34	15	9	10	+8	54
8	Preston	36	13	12	11	+6	51
9	Birmingham	35	12	14	9	+8	50
10	Nott'm Forest	35	12	14	9	+7	50
11	Hull	35	14	8	13	+2	50
12	Sheffield Weds	35	12	12	11	-7	48
13	Swansea	35	13	8	14	+2	47
14	Brentford	34	12	10	12	+12	46
15	Aston Villa	32	10	14	8	+6	44
16	Stoke	35	10	14	11	-5	44
17	Blackburn	36	11	11	14	-9	44
18	QPR	35	12	6	17	-13	42
19	Wigan	35	9	9	17	-15	36
20	Millwall	35	8	10	17	-15	34
21	Reading	35	7	12	16	-14	33
22	Rotherham	36	6	15	15	-21	33
23	Bolton	35	6	8	21	-33	26
24	Ipswich	35	3	12	20	-32	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	18	12	3	3	+20	39
2	Norwich	18	12	2	4	+11	38
3	Brentford	18	11	3	4	+21	36
4	Leeds	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Derby	16	9	5	2	+10	32
6	Hull	18	9	4	5	+13	31
7	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+8	31
8	Wigan	18	8	6	4	+3	30
9	Sheffield Weds	18	7	8	3	+3	29
10	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
11	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+2	28
12	Preston	18	6	9	3	+9	27
13	Middlesbrough	16	7	6	3	+7	27
14	Blackburn	18	7	6	5	+5	27
15	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+13	26
16	Birmingham	17	6	8	3	+9	26
17	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
18	Bristol City	17	7	5	5	+4	26
19	QPR	17	8	2	7	+2	26
20	Rotherham	18	6	8	4	-2	26
21	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
22	Reading	17	5	4	8	-2	19
23	Ipswich	18	2	9	7	-7	15
24	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	9	7	2	+16	34
2	Middlesbrough	18	8	7	3	+7	31
3	West Brom	17	9	3	5	+5	30
4	Sheffield United	18	8	5	5	+7	29
5	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+4	28
6	Leeds	16	7	4	5	+1	25
7	Birmingham	18	6	6	6	-1	24
8	Preston	18	7	3	8	-3	24
9	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
10	Nott'm Forest	18	3	10	5	-1	19
11	Swansea	18	5	4	9	-4	19
12	Sheffield Weds	17	5	4	8	-10	19
13	Hull	17	5	4	8	-11	19
14	Aston Villa	16	4	6	6	-1	18
15	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-14	17
16	Stoke	17	2	10	5	-7	16
17	QPR	18	4	4	10	-15	16
18	Reading	18	2	8	8	-12	14
19	Bolton	18	3	4	11	-18	13
20	Brentford	16	1	7	8	-9	10
21	Millwall	17	2	4	11	-13	10
22	Rotherham	18	0	7	11	-19	7
23	Wigan	17	1	3	13	-18	6
24	Ipswich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.