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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Millwall

S T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Brentford

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — Championship · 41/42 matches

Win Ø 29%

24%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

46%

48%

Both score Ø 58%

56%

60%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Millwall 20. · Brentford 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	42	25	11	6	+34	86
2	Sheffield United	43	24	10	9	+32	82
3	Leeds	40	23	7	10	+22	76
4	West Brom	40	20	9	11	+23	69
5	Bristol City	42	18	12	12	+9	66
6	Aston Villa	39	17	14	8	+17	65
7	Middlesbrough	42	17	13	12	+8	64
8	Derby	38	17	12	9	+18	63
9	Hull	42	17	9	16	+2	60
10	Sheffield Weds	42	15	14	13	-3	59
11	Nott'm Forest	43	14	15	14	+2	57
12	Preston	42	15	12	15	+1	57
13	Swansea	41	16	8	17	+1	56
14	Birmingham	42	13	16	13	+4	55
15	Brentford	42	14	12	16	+8	54
16	Blackburn	42	14	11	17	-7	53
17	Stoke	42	11	19	12	-6	52
18	QPR	42	13	9	20	-15	48
19	Reading	43	10	15	18	-16	45
20	Millwall	41	10	12	19	-13	42
21	Wigan	42	10	12	20	-17	42
22	Rotherham	42	8	16	18	-26	40
23	Bolton	42	8	8	26	-43	32
24	Ipswich	42	4	16	22	-35	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	22	14	4	4	+23	46
2	Norwich	21	14	3	4	+16	45
3	Leeds	20	13	3	4	+16	42
4	Brentford	21	12	4	5	+22	40
5	Derby	20	11	7	2	+19	40
6	Hull	21	11	5	5	+16	38
7	Swansea	20	11	4	5	+13	37
8	Nott'm Forest	21	11	4	6	+9	37
9	West Brom	20	10	6	4	+20	36
10	Aston Villa	19	9	8	2	+12	35
11	Sheffield Weds	21	9	8	4	+6	35
12	Wigan	21	9	8	4	+6	35
13	Blackburn	21	9	6	6	+9	33
14	Bristol City	22	8	8	6	+4	32
15	Stoke	21	8	7	6	+2	31
16	Preston	21	7	9	5	+7	30
17	Birmingham	21	7	9	5	+7	30
18	QPR	21	9	3	9	+4	30
19	Middlesbrough	21	8	6	7	+4	30
20	Rotherham	21	7	8	6	-3	29
21	Millwall	20	7	7	6	+0	28
22	Reading	21	8	4	9	-2	28
23	Ipswich	21	2	11	8	-9	17
24	Bolton	21	4	4	13	-19	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	11	8	2	+18	41
2	Sheffield United	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+6	34
4	Bristol City	20	10	4	6	+5	34
5	Middlesbrough	21	9	7	5	+4	34
6	West Brom	20	10	3	7	+3	33
7	Aston Villa	20	8	6	6	+5	30
8	Preston	21	8	3	10	-6	27
9	Birmingham	21	6	7	8	-3	25
10	Sheffield Weds	21	6	6	9	-9	24
11	Derby	18	6	5	7	-1	23
12	Hull	21	6	4	11	-14	22
13	Stoke	21	3	12	6	-8	21
14	Nott'm Forest	22	3	11	8	-7	20
15	Blackburn	21	5	5	11	-16	20
16	Swansea	21	5	4	12	-12	19
17	QPR	21	4	6	11	-19	18
18	Reading	22	2	11	9	-14	17
19	Bolton	21	4	4	13	-24	16
20	Millwall	21	3	5	13	-13	14
21	Brentford	21	2	8	11	-14	14
22	Rotherham	21	1	8	12	-23	11
23	Ipswich	21	2	5	14	-26	11
24	Wigan	21	1	4	16	-23	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.