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Championship

Referee: Simon Hooper

Birmingham

T T S U U

2–2

Full-time

Derby

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

This season — Championship · 42/38 matches

Win Ø 38%

31%

45%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

55%

61%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

32% Possession 68%

20 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

13 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 15. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	42	25	11	6	+34	86
2	Sheffield United	43	24	10	9	+32	82
3	Leeds	40	23	7	10	+22	76
4	West Brom	40	20	9	11	+23	69
5	Bristol City	42	18	12	12	+9	66
6	Aston Villa	39	17	14	8	+17	65
7	Middlesbrough	42	17	13	12	+8	64
8	Derby	38	17	12	9	+18	63
9	Hull	42	17	9	16	+2	60
10	Sheffield Weds	42	15	14	13	-3	59
11	Nott'm Forest	43	14	15	14	+2	57
12	Preston	42	15	12	15	+1	57
13	Swansea	41	16	8	17	+1	56
14	Brentford	43	14	13	16	+8	55
15	Birmingham	42	13	16	13	+4	55
16	Blackburn	42	14	11	17	-7	53
17	Stoke	42	11	19	12	-6	52
18	QPR	42	13	9	20	-15	48
19	Reading	43	10	15	18	-16	45
20	Millwall	42	10	13	19	-13	43
21	Wigan	42	10	12	20	-17	42
22	Rotherham	42	8	16	18	-26	40
23	Bolton	42	8	8	26	-43	32
24	Ipswich	42	4	16	22	-35	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	22	14	4	4	+23	46
2	Norwich	21	14	3	4	+16	45
3	Leeds	20	13	3	4	+16	42
4	Brentford	21	12	4	5	+22	40
5	Derby	20	11	7	2	+19	40
6	Hull	21	11	5	5	+16	38
7	Swansea	20	11	4	5	+13	37
8	Nott'm Forest	21	11	4	6	+9	37
9	West Brom	20	10	6	4	+20	36
10	Aston Villa	19	9	8	2	+12	35
11	Sheffield Weds	21	9	8	4	+6	35
12	Wigan	21	9	8	4	+6	35
13	Blackburn	21	9	6	6	+9	33
14	Bristol City	22	8	8	6	+4	32
15	Stoke	21	8	7	6	+2	31
16	Preston	21	7	9	5	+7	30
17	Birmingham	21	7	9	5	+7	30
18	QPR	21	9	3	9	+4	30
19	Middlesbrough	21	8	6	7	+4	30
20	Millwall	21	7	8	6	+0	29
21	Rotherham	21	7	8	6	-3	29
22	Reading	21	8	4	9	-2	28
23	Ipswich	21	2	11	8	-9	17
24	Bolton	21	4	4	13	-19	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	11	8	2	+18	41
2	Sheffield United	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+6	34
4	Bristol City	20	10	4	6	+5	34
5	Middlesbrough	21	9	7	5	+4	34
6	West Brom	20	10	3	7	+3	33
7	Aston Villa	20	8	6	6	+5	30
8	Preston	21	8	3	10	-6	27
9	Birmingham	21	6	7	8	-3	25
10	Sheffield Weds	21	6	6	9	-9	24
11	Derby	18	6	5	7	-1	23
12	Hull	21	6	4	11	-14	22
13	Stoke	21	3	12	6	-8	21
14	Nott'm Forest	22	3	11	8	-7	20
15	Blackburn	21	5	5	11	-16	20
16	Swansea	21	5	4	12	-12	19
17	QPR	21	4	6	11	-19	18
18	Reading	22	2	11	9	-14	17
19	Bolton	21	4	4	13	-24	16
20	Brentford	22	2	9	11	-14	15
21	Millwall	21	3	5	13	-13	14
22	Rotherham	21	1	8	12	-23	11
23	Ipswich	21	2	5	14	-26	11
24	Wigan	21	1	4	16	-23	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.