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Championship

Referee: John Brooks

Brentford

S T T U T

3–3

Full-time

Derby

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Championship · 39/35 matches

Win Ø 40%

33%

46%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

63%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 22

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 13. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	40	25	9	6	+34	84
2	Sheffield United	39	22	8	9	+29	74
3	Leeds	37	21	7	9	+20	70
4	West Brom	37	19	9	9	+23	66
5	Bristol City	38	17	10	11	+9	61
6	Derby	35	16	11	8	+16	59
7	Middlesbrough	39	15	13	11	+7	58
8	Nott'm Forest	39	14	15	10	+9	57
9	Preston	39	15	12	12	+7	57
10	Aston Villa	36	14	14	8	+13	56
11	Sheffield Weds	39	14	14	11	-3	56
12	Hull	39	15	9	15	+0	54
13	Brentford	39	13	11	15	+7	50
14	Birmingham	39	12	14	13	+3	50
15	Swansea	38	14	8	16	+1	50
16	Stoke	39	10	18	11	-5	48
17	Blackburn	39	12	11	16	-9	47
18	QPR	40	12	8	20	-19	44
19	Reading	39	9	13	17	-15	40
20	Wigan	39	10	10	19	-16	40
21	Millwall	38	9	10	19	-15	37
22	Rotherham	39	7	15	17	-26	36
23	Bolton	39	8	8	23	-36	32
24	Ipswich	39	3	15	21	-34	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	14	2	4	+16	44
2	Sheffield United	20	13	3	4	+21	42
3	Leeds	19	12	3	4	+15	39
4	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
5	Nott'm Forest	20	11	4	5	+10	37
6	Brentford	19	11	3	5	+20	36
7	Wigan	20	9	7	4	+6	34
8	West Brom	19	9	6	4	+17	33
9	Hull	19	9	5	5	+13	32
10	Aston Villa	18	8	8	2	+11	32
11	Sheffield Weds	19	8	8	3	+5	32
12	Swansea	18	9	4	5	+9	31
13	Preston	19	7	9	3	+10	30
14	Blackburn	19	8	6	5	+8	30
15	Stoke	20	8	6	6	+2	30
16	Bristol City	19	7	6	6	+3	27
17	Middlesbrough	20	7	6	7	+3	27
18	QPR	20	8	3	9	+0	27
19	Birmingham	19	6	8	5	+6	26
20	Rotherham	19	6	8	5	-3	26
21	Reading	20	7	4	9	-3	25
22	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Ipswich	20	2	10	8	-9	16
24	Bolton	19	4	4	11	-16	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	11	7	2	+18	40
2	Bristol City	19	10	4	5	+6	34
3	West Brom	18	10	3	5	+6	33
4	Sheffield United	19	9	5	5	+8	32
5	Leeds	18	9	4	5	+5	31
6	Middlesbrough	19	8	7	4	+4	31
7	Preston	20	8	3	9	-3	27
8	Aston Villa	18	6	6	6	+2	24
9	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-3	24
10	Sheffield Weds	20	6	6	8	-8	24
11	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Hull	20	6	4	10	-13	22
13	Nott'm Forest	19	3	11	5	-1	20
14	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-8	19
15	Stoke	19	2	12	5	-7	18
16	Blackburn	20	4	5	11	-17	17
17	QPR	20	4	5	11	-19	17
18	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-20	16
19	Reading	19	2	9	8	-12	15
20	Brentford	20	2	8	10	-13	14
21	Millwall	20	3	4	13	-13	13
22	Rotherham	20	1	7	12	-23	10
23	Ipswich	19	1	5	13	-25	8
24	Wigan	19	1	3	15	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.