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Bundesliga
Referee: Frank Willenborg
Leverkusen
S T T U S
1–2
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen FC Ingolstadt 04
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,2
1,8
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 29%
43%
14%
Points per game
1,4
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
71%
36%
Both score Ø 61%
71%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%
5 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 7
0 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 4
6 Offside 4
17 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leverkusen 8. · FC Ingolstadt 04 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 15 11 3 1 +26 36
2 RB Leipzig 15 11 3 1 +19 36
3 Hoffenheim 15 6 9 0 +11 27
4 Hertha 15 8 3 4 +6 27
5 Dortmund 15 7 5 3 +16 26
6 Ein Frankfurt 15 7 5 3 +7 26
7 FC Koln 15 6 6 3 +6 24
8 Leverkusen 14 6 2 6 +0 20
9 Mainz 15 6 2 7 -1 20
10 Freiburg 15 6 2 7 -7 20
11 Schalke 04 15 5 3 7 +2 18
12 Augsburg 15 4 5 6 -4 17
13 M'gladbach 15 4 4 7 -9 16
14 Werder Bremen 15 4 3 8 -14 15
15 Wolfsburg 15 3 4 8 -10 13
16 Hamburg 15 2 4 9 -18 10
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 14 2 3 9 -13 9
18 Darmstadt 15 2 2 11 -17 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen FC Ingolstadt 04
26′
A. Morales 0–1
M. Suttner
Charles Aránguiz 🟨
35′
Half-time 0–1
Wendell 🔁
↦ D. da Costa
46′
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ J. Baumgartlinger
46′
Charles Aránguiz 🟨
49′
Charles Aránguiz 🟥
49′
Tin Jedvaj 🟨
59′
1–1 A. Mehmedi
J. Brandt
63′
73′
A. Cohen 1–2
P. Groß
75′
🔁 L. Hinterseer
↦ D. Lezcano
75′
🔁 S. Kittel
↦ P. Groß
76′
🟨 Marcel Tisserand
K. Havertz 🔁
↦ T. Jedvaj
82′
85′
🟨 Marvin Matip
91′
🔁 T. Levels
↦ A. Jung
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 B. Leno G
6 A. Dragović D
23 D. da Costa M
16 T. Jedvaj D
4 J. Tah D
20 C. Aránguiz M
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
44 K. Kampl M
14 A. Mehmedi M
7 J. Hernández F
10 H. Çalhanoğlu F
Bench (7)
18 Wendell
19 J. Brandt
29 K. Havertz
17 J. Pohjanpalo
21 Ö. Toprak
28 R. Özcan
35 V. Yurchenko

Coach: R. Schmidt

FC Ingolstadt 04

3-4-2-1
35 M. Hansen G
34 M. Matip D
29 M. Suttner D
3 A. Jung D
32 M. Tisserand D
33 F. Hadergjonaj D
8 Roger M
36 A. Cohen M
6 A. Morales M
10 P. Groß F
11 D. Lezcano F
Bench (7)
16 L. Hinterseer
21 S. Kittel
28 T. Levels
1 Ø. Nyland
13 R. Leipertz
14 S. Lex
19 M. Christiansen

Coach: M. Walpurgis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Frank Willenborg · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.