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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Man City

S S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 63%

63%

Points per game

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

69%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

2,1

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	17	14	1	2	+24	43
2	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+20	34
4	Man City	16	10	3	3	+15	33
5	Tottenham	16	8	6	2	+16	30
6	Man United	17	8	6	3	+7	30
7	Southampton	17	6	6	5	+1	24
8	West Brom	17	6	5	6	+2	23
9	Everton	16	6	5	5	+1	23
10	Bournemouth	17	6	3	8	-5	21
11	Stoke	17	5	6	6	-5	21
12	Watford	17	6	3	8	-8	21
13	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-12	19
14	Middlesbrough	17	4	6	7	-3	18
15	Leicester	17	4	5	8	-6	17
16	Burnley	16	5	2	9	-11	17
17	Crystal Palace	17	4	3	10	-4	15
18	Sunderland	17	4	2	11	-13	14
19	Swansea	17	3	3	11	-17	12
20	Hull	17	3	3	11	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Tottenham	8	6	2	0	+13	20
3	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+15	17
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Everton	8	4	4	0	+6	16
6	Bournemouth	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Burnley	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Man City	8	4	3	1	+7	15
9	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+7	15
10	Southampton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
11	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+3	14
12	West Ham	9	4	2	3	-5	14
13	Man United	8	3	4	1	+5	13
14	Watford	8	4	1	3	+1	13
15	Stoke	9	3	3	3	-2	12
16	Middlesbrough	9	3	1	5	-1	10
17	Sunderland	9	3	1	5	-4	10
18	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
19	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
20	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+7	22
2	Man City	8	6	0	2	+8	18
3	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Liverpool	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Man United	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Tottenham	8	2	4	2	+3	10
7	West Brom	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Southampton	9	2	3	4	-2	9
9	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Middlesbrough	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Watford	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	West Ham	8	1	2	5	-7	5
15	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Swansea	9	1	1	7	-14	4
18	Hull	9	1	1	7	-16	4
19	Leicester	9	0	2	7	-13	2
20	Burnley	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.