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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Dortmund

T S S T U

3–2

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

3,8

Scored

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 52%

66%

38%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

75%

72%

Both score Ø 64%

69%

59%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,4

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	23	5	4	+52	74
2	Dortmund	32	21	7	4	+34	70
3	RB Leipzig	32	19	8	5	+35	65
4	Ein Frankfurt	32	15	9	8	+18	54
5	Leverkusen	32	17	3	12	+13	54
6	M'gladbach	32	15	7	10	+11	52
7	Wolfsburg	32	15	7	10	+8	52
8	Hoffenheim	32	13	12	7	+21	51
9	Werder Bremen	32	12	11	9	+7	47
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	32	12	5	15	-16	41
11	Hertha	32	10	10	12	-5	40
12	Mainz	32	10	7	15	-15	37
13	Freiburg	32	7	12	13	-16	33
14	Augsburg	32	8	8	16	-12	32
15	Schalke 04	32	8	7	17	-18	31
16	Stuttgart	32	6	6	20	-41	24
17	Nurnberg	32	3	10	19	-34	19
18	Hannover	32	4	6	22	-42	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+31	39
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	5	1	+25	35
4	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+11	30
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	4	4	+13	28
6	Leverkusen	16	9	1	6	+7	28
7	Werder Bremen	16	7	6	3	+8	27
8	Hoffenheim	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Mainz	16	7	5	4	+7	26
10	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+6	26
11	Hertha	16	6	6	4	+3	24
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	8	0	8	-2	24
13	Freiburg	16	5	7	4	+1	22
14	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	+2	19
15	Stuttgart	16	5	4	7	-8	19
16	Nurnberg	16	3	7	6	-2	16
17	Schalke 04	16	4	2	10	-12	14
18	Hannover	16	4	1	11	-14	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	2	3	+21	35
2	RB Leipzig	16	9	3	4	+10	30
3	Dortmund	16	8	5	3	+8	29
4	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+6	26
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	5	4	+5	26
6	Wolfsburg	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Hoffenheim	16	6	7	3	+12	25
8	M'gladbach	16	6	4	6	+0	22
9	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Schalke 04	16	4	5	7	-6	17
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	4	5	7	-14	17
12	Hertha	16	4	4	8	-8	16
13	Augsburg	16	3	4	9	-14	13
14	Freiburg	16	2	5	9	-17	11
15	Mainz	16	3	2	11	-22	11
16	Hannover	16	0	5	11	-28	5
17	Stuttgart	16	1	2	13	-33	5
18	Nurnberg	16	0	3	13	-32	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.