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Bundesliga

Referee: Markus Schmidt

Mainz

T T T S T

3–1

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

31%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

66%

72%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

55% Possession 45%

21 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 12. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	21	4	4	+49	67
2	Dortmund	29	20	6	3	+32	66
3	RB Leipzig	29	17	7	5	+33	58
4	Ein Frankfurt	29	15	7	7	+23	52
5	M'gladbach	29	15	6	8	+13	51
6	Hoffenheim	29	12	11	6	+21	47
7	Werder Bremen	29	12	10	7	+11	46
8	Leverkusen	29	14	3	12	+3	45
9	Wolfsburg	29	13	6	10	+3	45
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	29	11	4	14	-17	37
11	Hertha	29	9	8	12	-7	35
12	Mainz	29	9	6	14	-16	33
13	Freiburg	29	7	11	11	-11	32
14	Augsburg	29	7	7	15	-15	28
15	Schalke 04	29	7	6	16	-17	27
16	Stuttgart	29	5	6	18	-34	21
17	Nurnberg	29	3	9	17	-30	18
18	Hannover	29	3	5	21	-41	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	15	13	2	0	+28	41
2	Bayern Munich	14	10	3	1	+28	33
3	RB Leipzig	15	9	5	1	+24	32
4	M'gladbach	14	9	2	3	+12	29
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	8	3	4	+13	27
6	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+12	26
7	Werder Bremen	15	7	5	3	+8	26
8	Mainz	14	6	4	4	+5	22
9	Wolfsburg	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Leverkusen	14	7	1	6	+0	22
11	Freiburg	14	5	6	3	+5	21
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	7	0	8	-5	21
13	Hertha	14	5	5	4	+1	20
14	Augsburg	14	4	4	6	-1	16
15	Stuttgart	15	4	4	7	-9	16
16	Nurnberg	15	3	6	6	-2	15
17	Schalke 04	14	4	1	9	-9	13
18	Hannover	15	3	1	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	1	3	+21	34
2	RB Leipzig	14	8	2	4	+9	26
3	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	4	3	+10	25
4	Dortmund	14	7	4	3	+4	25
5	Leverkusen	15	7	2	6	+3	23
6	Wolfsburg	15	7	2	6	-1	23
7	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+1	22
8	Hoffenheim	14	5	6	3	+9	21
9	Werder Bremen	14	5	5	4	+3	20
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	4	6	-12	16
11	Hertha	15	4	3	8	-8	15
12	Schalke 04	15	3	5	7	-8	14
13	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-14	12
14	Freiburg	15	2	5	8	-16	11
15	Mainz	15	3	2	10	-21	11
16	Stuttgart	14	1	2	11	-25	5
17	Hannover	14	0	4	10	-26	4
18	Nurnberg	14	0	3	11	-28	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.