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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Dortmund

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

3,7

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 50%

68%

32%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

71%

64%

Both score Ø 61%

68%

54%

Average goals

3,6

2,9

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

60% Possession 40%

12 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	20	4	4	+46	64
2	Dortmund	28	19	6	3	+31	63
3	RB Leipzig	29	17	7	5	+33	58
4	Ein Frankfurt	28	15	7	6	+25	52
5	M'gladbach	29	15	6	8	+13	51
6	Werder Bremen	29	12	10	7	+11	46
7	Leverkusen	29	14	3	12	+3	45
8	Wolfsburg	29	13	6	10	+3	45
9	Hoffenheim	28	11	11	6	+19	44
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	28	11	4	13	-14	37
11	Hertha	28	9	8	11	-5	35
12	Mainz	28	9	6	13	-15	33
13	Freiburg	29	7	11	11	-11	32
14	Schalke 04	29	7	6	16	-17	27
15	Augsburg	28	6	7	15	-17	25
16	Stuttgart	29	5	6	18	-34	21
17	Nurnberg	29	3	9	17	-30	18
18	Hannover	29	3	5	21	-41	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	14	12	2	0	+27	38
2	Bayern Munich	14	10	3	1	+28	33
3	RB Leipzig	15	9	5	1	+24	32
4	M'gladbach	14	9	2	3	+12	29
5	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	3	3	+15	27
6	Werder Bremen	15	7	5	3	+8	26
7	Hoffenheim	14	6	5	3	+10	23
8	Mainz	14	6	4	4	+5	22
9	Wolfsburg	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Leverkusen	14	7	1	6	+0	22
11	Freiburg	14	5	6	3	+5	21
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	7	0	7	-2	21
13	Hertha	14	5	5	4	+1	20
14	Augsburg	14	4	4	6	-1	16
15	Stuttgart	15	4	4	7	-9	16
16	Nurnberg	15	3	6	6	-2	15
17	Schalke 04	14	4	1	9	-9	13
18	Hannover	15	3	1	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	1	3	+18	31
2	RB Leipzig	14	8	2	4	+9	26
3	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	4	3	+10	25
4	Dortmund	14	7	4	3	+4	25
5	Leverkusen	15	7	2	6	+3	23
6	Wolfsburg	15	7	2	6	-1	23
7	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+1	22
8	Hoffenheim	14	5	6	3	+9	21
9	Werder Bremen	14	5	5	4	+3	20
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	4	6	-12	16
11	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-6	15
12	Schalke 04	15	3	5	7	-8	14
13	Freiburg	15	2	5	8	-16	11
14	Mainz	14	3	2	9	-20	11
15	Augsburg	14	2	3	9	-16	9
16	Stuttgart	14	1	2	11	-25	5
17	Hannover	14	0	4	10	-26	4
18	Nurnberg	14	0	3	11	-28	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.