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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Fiorentina

T U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Milan

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 35%

23%

46%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

40%

46%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 12. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	28	5	2	+44	89
2	Napoli	35	22	7	6	+35	73
3	Atalanta	36	19	8	9	+29	65
4	Inter	35	18	9	8	+24	63
5	Roma	35	16	11	8	+15	59
6	Milan	35	16	11	8	+15	59
7	Lazio	36	17	7	12	+12	58
8	Torino	35	14	15	6	+15	57
9	Sampdoria	35	14	7	14	+8	49
10	Sassuolo	35	9	15	11	-4	42
11	Spal	35	11	9	15	-9	42
12	Fiorentina	35	8	16	11	+4	40
13	Cagliari	36	10	10	16	-17	40
14	Parma	35	9	11	15	-17	38
15	Bologna	35	9	10	16	-12	37
16	Genoa	36	8	12	16	-18	36
17	Udinese	35	8	10	17	-18	34
18	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-22	32
19	Frosinone	35	5	9	21	-36	24
20	Chievo	35	2	12	21	-48	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	15	3	0	+26	48
2	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+22	40
3	Milan	18	11	4	3	+12	37
4	Roma	17	10	5	2	+14	35
5	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+15	32
6	Inter	17	9	5	3	+14	32
7	Torino	17	10	2	5	+10	32
8	Lazio	18	9	4	5	+11	31
9	Cagliari	18	8	6	4	+4	30
10	Sampdoria	17	9	2	6	+11	29
11	Empoli	18	8	3	7	+0	27
12	Udinese	18	7	5	6	-1	26
13	Bologna	17	7	4	6	+2	25
14	Genoa	18	6	7	5	-1	25
15	Sassuolo	18	5	9	4	+0	24
16	Fiorentina	17	5	8	4	+7	23
17	Spal	17	5	7	5	-4	22
18	Parma	18	4	7	7	-8	19
19	Chievo	18	1	6	11	-23	9
20	Frosinone	17	1	5	11	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+18	41
2	Atalanta	18	10	3	5	+14	33
3	Napoli	17	10	3	4	+13	33
4	Inter	18	9	4	5	+10	31
5	Lazio	18	8	3	7	+1	27
6	Torino	18	4	13	1	+5	25
7	Roma	18	6	6	6	+1	24
8	Milan	17	5	7	5	+3	22
9	Sampdoria	18	5	5	8	-3	20
10	Spal	18	6	2	10	-5	20
11	Parma	17	5	4	8	-9	19
12	Sassuolo	17	4	6	7	-4	18
13	Fiorentina	18	3	8	7	-3	17
14	Frosinone	18	4	4	10	-14	16
15	Bologna	18	2	6	10	-14	12
16	Genoa	18	2	5	11	-17	11
17	Cagliari	18	2	4	12	-21	10
18	Chievo	17	1	6	10	-25	9
19	Udinese	17	1	5	11	-17	8
20	Empoli	17	0	5	12	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.