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La Liga

Referee: Carlos Clos Gomez

Real Madrid

S S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Villarreal

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,7

3,2

Scored

4,0

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+3,3

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 61%

70%

52%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

73%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

58%

42%

Average goals

3,9

2,1

Scored

3,0

1,3

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Villarreal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	25	4	5	+67	79
2	Ath Madrid	34	25	4	5	+42	79
3	Real Madrid	33	23	6	4	+68	75
4	Villarreal	33	17	9	7	+14	60
5	Ath Bilbao	34	16	6	12	+10	54
6	Celta	34	15	9	10	-7	54
7	Sevilla	34	13	10	11	+5	49
8	Valencia	34	11	10	13	+2	43
9	Malaga	34	10	12	12	+0	42
10	Sociedad	33	11	8	14	-3	41
11	Eibar	34	11	8	15	-8	41
12	Betis	34	10	11	13	-15	41
13	Las Palmas	34	11	7	16	-8	40
14	La Coruna	34	7	17	10	-14	38
15	Espanol	34	10	7	17	-28	37
16	Vallecano	34	8	11	15	-20	35
17	Sp Gijon	34	8	8	18	-20	32
18	Granada	33	7	9	17	-27	30
19	Levante	33	7	7	19	-26	28
20	Getafe	33	7	7	19	-32	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+50	43
2	Barcelona	17	14	1	2	+42	43
3	Sevilla	17	13	1	3	+18	40
4	Ath Madrid	16	12	3	1	+22	39
5	Villarreal	17	12	3	2	+16	39
6	Ath Bilbao	17	9	4	4	+15	31
7	Eibar	17	8	3	6	+4	27
8	Celta	17	7	6	4	+2	27
9	Espanol	17	7	5	5	-9	26
10	Valencia	17	6	7	4	+5	25
11	Las Palmas	17	7	4	6	+4	25
12	Vallecano	17	7	4	6	-1	25
13	Malaga	17	6	6	5	+6	24
14	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+3	23
15	Sociedad	16	6	5	5	+3	23
16	Levante	17	6	4	7	-4	22
17	Betis	17	5	6	6	-5	21
18	La Coruna	17	4	8	5	-5	20
19	Sp Gijon	17	5	4	8	-4	19
20	Granada	16	4	5	7	-7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	13	1	4	+20	40
2	Barcelona	17	11	3	3	+25	36
3	Real Madrid	16	9	5	2	+18	32
4	Celta	17	8	3	6	-9	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	7	2	8	-5	23
6	Villarreal	16	5	6	5	-2	21
7	Betis	17	5	5	7	-10	20
8	Valencia	17	5	3	9	-3	18
9	Sociedad	17	5	3	9	-6	18
10	Malaga	17	4	6	7	-6	18
11	La Coruna	17	3	9	5	-9	18
12	Las Palmas	17	4	3	10	-12	15
13	Eibar	17	3	5	9	-12	14
14	Sp Gijon	17	3	4	10	-16	13
15	Granada	17	3	4	10	-20	13
16	Espanol	17	3	2	12	-19	11
17	Vallecano	17	1	7	9	-19	10
18	Sevilla	17	0	9	8	-13	9
19	Levante	16	1	3	12	-22	6
20	Getafe	16	1	2	13	-35	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.