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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Udinese

T U S T U

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 40%

27%

52%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

42%

48%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

58%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

29% Possession 71%

10 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 16. · Fiorentina 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	33	25	4	4	+45	79
2	Napoli	34	22	7	5	+43	73
3	Roma	33	18	11	4	+34	65
4	Inter	33	18	7	8	+14	61
5	Fiorentina	33	17	8	8	+18	59
6	Milan	33	14	10	9	+8	52
7	Sassuolo	34	12	13	9	+3	49
8	Lazio	33	13	9	11	+2	48
9	Chievo	33	12	9	12	-2	45
10	Torino	33	11	9	13	-2	42
11	Genoa	33	11	7	15	-3	40
12	Empoli	33	10	9	14	-9	39
13	Sampdoria	34	9	10	15	-4	37
14	Atalanta	33	9	10	14	-7	37
15	Bologna	34	10	7	17	-13	37
16	Udinese	33	9	8	16	-19	35
17	Carpi	33	7	10	16	-18	31
18	Frosinone	33	8	6	19	-30	30
19	Palermo	33	7	7	19	-32	28
20	Verona	33	3	13	17	-28	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	3	0	+32	45
2	Juventus	16	13	2	1	+21	41
3	Fiorentina	17	11	4	2	+19	37
4	Roma	16	10	5	1	+22	35
5	Inter	17	11	2	4	+11	35
6	Milan	16	9	4	3	+8	31
7	Genoa	16	9	3	4	+11	30
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+9	30
9	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+5	26
10	Sassuolo	17	6	8	3	+2	26
11	Sampdoria	17	7	4	6	+6	25
12	Torino	17	6	6	5	+3	24
13	Chievo	16	6	6	4	+3	24
14	Frosinone	17	6	4	7	-5	22
15	Empoli	16	5	5	6	+0	20
16	Carpi	17	5	5	7	-2	20
17	Udinese	16	5	4	7	-6	19
18	Bologna	17	4	5	8	-2	17
19	Palermo	16	4	3	9	-9	15
20	Verona	17	2	6	9	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	2	3	+24	38
2	Roma	17	8	6	3	+12	30
3	Napoli	17	8	4	5	+11	28
4	Inter	16	7	5	4	+3	26
5	Sassuolo	17	6	5	6	+1	23
6	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	-1	22
7	Milan	17	5	6	6	+0	21
8	Chievo	17	6	3	8	-5	21
9	Bologna	17	6	2	9	-11	20
10	Empoli	17	5	4	8	-9	19
11	Torino	16	5	3	8	-5	18
12	Lazio	16	4	6	6	-7	18
13	Udinese	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	Palermo	17	3	4	10	-23	13
15	Sampdoria	17	2	6	9	-10	12
16	Atalanta	16	2	5	9	-12	11
17	Carpi	16	2	5	9	-16	11
18	Genoa	17	2	4	11	-14	10
19	Verona	16	1	7	8	-17	10
20	Frosinone	16	2	2	12	-25	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.