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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Real Madrid

S U S T S

2–1

Full-time

Valencia

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,8

3,2

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 53%

73%

32%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

82%

68%

Both score Ø 72%

76%

68%

Average goals

3,9

3,2

Scored

2,7

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Valencia 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	24	6	4	+68	78
2	Real Madrid	33	24	6	3	+52	78
3	Ath Madrid	34	20	8	6	+35	68
4	Sevilla	34	20	8	6	+20	68
5	Villarreal	35	18	9	8	+24	63
6	Sociedad	35	19	4	12	+6	61
7	Ath Bilbao	34	18	5	11	+10	59
8	Eibar	34	14	9	11	+7	51
9	Espanol	34	13	11	10	+1	50
10	Alaves	34	11	12	11	-8	45
11	Celta	33	13	5	15	-5	44
12	Valencia	34	11	7	16	-10	40
13	Las Palmas	34	10	9	15	-9	39
14	Malaga	34	10	9	15	-9	39
15	Betis	34	10	7	17	-16	37
16	La Coruna	34	7	10	17	-20	31
17	Leganes	34	7	9	18	-21	30
18	Sp Gijon	35	5	9	21	-32	24
19	Granada	35	4	8	23	-46	20
20	Osasuna	34	3	9	22	-47	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	13	3	1	+42	42
2	Ath Bilbao	18	13	3	2	+18	42
3	Sevilla	17	13	3	1	+18	42
4	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+24	40
5	Ath Madrid	17	12	2	3	+23	38
6	Villarreal	18	11	3	4	+17	36
7	Sociedad	18	10	4	4	+6	34
8	Las Palmas	17	9	6	2	+16	33
9	Eibar	17	9	3	5	+7	30
10	Espanol	17	8	5	4	+8	29
11	Celta	16	9	1	6	+4	28
12	Malaga	16	8	2	6	+4	26
13	Valencia	17	7	4	6	-1	25
14	Betis	17	6	6	5	+1	24
15	La Coruna	17	6	5	6	+2	23
16	Alaves	17	5	8	4	-5	23
17	Leganes	17	4	5	8	-5	17
18	Granada	17	4	4	9	-10	16
19	Sp Gijon	17	4	3	10	-13	15
20	Osasuna	17	1	6	10	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	12	2	2	+28	38
2	Barcelona	17	11	3	3	+26	36
3	Ath Madrid	17	8	6	3	+12	30
4	Villarreal	17	7	6	4	+7	27
5	Sociedad	17	9	0	8	+0	27
6	Sevilla	17	7	5	5	+2	26
7	Alaves	17	6	4	7	-3	22
8	Eibar	17	5	6	6	+0	21
9	Espanol	17	5	6	6	-7	21
10	Ath Bilbao	16	5	2	9	-8	17
11	Celta	17	4	4	9	-9	16
12	Valencia	17	4	3	10	-9	15
13	Malaga	18	2	7	9	-13	13
14	Leganes	17	3	4	10	-16	13
15	Betis	17	4	1	12	-17	13
16	Sp Gijon	18	1	6	11	-19	9
17	Osasuna	17	2	3	12	-30	9
18	La Coruna	17	1	5	11	-22	8
19	Las Palmas	17	1	3	13	-25	6
20	Granada	18	0	4	14	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.