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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Mainz

T T T S U

1–2

Full-time

M'gladbach

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 34%

30%

37%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

60%

53%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 3

6 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 13. · M'gladbach 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	21	7	2	+56	70
2	RB Leipzig	30	19	5	6	+25	62
3	Dortmund	30	16	8	6	+30	56
4	Hoffenheim	30	14	13	3	+25	55
5	Hertha	30	14	4	12	+3	46
6	Freiburg	30	13	5	12	-14	44
7	Werder Bremen	30	12	6	12	-1	42
8	Schalke 04	31	11	8	12	+7	41
9	FC Koln	30	10	11	9	+6	41
10	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	8	11	-2	41
11	M'gladbach	30	11	6	13	-5	39
12	Leverkusen	31	10	6	15	-6	36
13	Mainz	30	9	6	15	-10	33
14	Wolfsburg	30	9	6	15	-13	33
15	Hamburg	30	9	6	15	-25	33
16	Augsburg	30	8	8	14	-20	32
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	30	8	4	18	-21	28
18	Darmstadt	30	6	3	21	-35	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	4	0	+42	37
2	RB Leipzig	15	12	1	2	+20	37
3	Hertha	15	12	1	2	+16	37
4	Dortmund	14	11	3	0	+27	36
5	Hoffenheim	15	10	5	0	+20	35
6	Schalke 04	16	8	4	4	+14	28
7	Freiburg	15	9	1	5	-3	28
8	FC Koln	15	7	6	2	+9	27
9	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	6	2	+8	27
10	M'gladbach	15	7	3	5	+8	24
11	Hamburg	15	7	3	5	-5	24
12	Werder Bremen	15	7	1	7	+4	22
13	Mainz	15	6	4	5	+3	22
14	Leverkusen	16	5	5	6	-1	20
15	Darmstadt	15	5	3	7	-8	18
16	Wolfsburg	15	5	2	8	-4	17
17	Augsburg	15	4	5	6	-7	17
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	4	3	8	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	3	2	+14	33
2	RB Leipzig	15	7	4	4	+5	25
3	Hoffenheim	15	4	8	3	+5	20
4	Dortmund	16	5	5	6	+3	20
5	Werder Bremen	15	5	5	5	-5	20
6	Leverkusen	15	5	1	9	-5	16
7	Wolfsburg	15	4	4	7	-9	16
8	Freiburg	15	4	4	7	-11	16
9	M'gladbach	15	4	3	8	-13	15
10	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	FC Koln	15	3	5	7	-3	14
12	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	2	9	-10	14
13	Schalke 04	15	3	4	8	-7	13
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	4	1	10	-12	13
15	Mainz	15	3	2	10	-13	11
16	Hertha	15	2	3	10	-13	9
17	Hamburg	15	2	3	10	-20	9
18	Darmstadt	15	1	0	14	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.