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La Liga

Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva

Real Madrid

S S U S U

2–1

Full-time

Leganes

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Leganes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

This season — La Liga · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 47%

61%

32%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

73%

41%

Both score Ø 45%

61%

29%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Leganes 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	25	8	0	+64	83
2	Ath Madrid	34	21	9	4	+36	72
3	Real Madrid	33	20	8	5	+44	68
4	Valencia	34	20	6	8	+26	66
5	Betis	34	17	5	12	+1	56
6	Villarreal	33	15	6	12	+5	51
7	Getafe	34	13	9	12	+8	48
8	Sevilla	34	14	6	14	-12	48
9	Girona	34	13	8	13	-6	47
10	Sociedad	35	13	7	15	+8	46
11	Celta	34	12	9	13	+6	45
12	Eibar	34	12	7	15	-10	43
13	Alaves	34	13	2	19	-13	41
14	Ath Bilbao	35	9	13	13	-7	40
15	Espanol	35	9	13	13	-12	40
16	Leganes	34	11	7	16	-13	40
17	Levante	35	9	13	13	-16	40
18	La Coruna	34	6	10	18	-33	28
19	Las Palmas	35	5	7	23	-47	22
20	Malaga	34	5	5	24	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Ath Madrid	17	12	5	0	+24	41
3	Valencia	17	12	2	3	+19	38
4	Real Madrid	17	10	4	3	+27	34
5	Sociedad	18	9	3	6	+17	30
6	Getafe	17	9	3	5	+14	30
7	Betis	17	9	3	5	+3	30
8	Villarreal	16	9	2	5	+9	29
9	Sevilla	16	8	5	3	+6	29
10	Celta	17	7	7	3	+9	28
11	Leganes	17	8	4	5	+2	28
12	Girona	17	8	3	6	+8	27
13	Espanol	18	7	6	5	+1	27
14	Eibar	18	7	4	7	+6	25
15	Alaves	17	8	1	8	-3	25
16	Levante	18	6	6	6	-4	24
17	Ath Bilbao	17	5	8	4	+2	23
18	La Coruna	17	4	6	7	-7	18
19	Malaga	17	4	3	10	-9	15
20	Las Palmas	17	4	2	11	-21	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	11	6	0	+27	39
2	Real Madrid	16	10	4	2	+17	34
3	Ath Madrid	17	9	4	4	+12	31
4	Valencia	17	8	4	5	+7	28
5	Betis	17	8	2	7	-2	26
6	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	-4	22
7	Girona	17	5	5	7	-14	20
8	Sevilla	18	6	1	11	-18	19
9	Getafe	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Eibar	16	5	3	8	-16	18
11	Celta	17	5	2	10	-3	17
12	Ath Bilbao	18	4	5	9	-9	17
13	Sociedad	17	4	4	9	-9	16
14	Alaves	17	5	1	11	-10	16
15	Levante	17	3	7	7	-12	16
16	Espanol	17	2	7	8	-13	13
17	Leganes	17	3	3	11	-15	12
18	La Coruna	17	2	4	11	-26	10
19	Las Palmas	18	1	5	12	-26	8
20	Malaga	17	1	2	14	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.