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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Malaga
T T U S T
1–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malaga Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,8
3,7
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,3
This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 37%
13%
61%
Points per game
0,5
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
29%
74%
Both score Ø 44%
29%
58%
Average goals
2,2
3,6
Scored
0,6
2,5
Conceded
1,5
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+1,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%
14 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 7
2 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 9
4 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Malaga 20. · Real Madrid 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 32 25 7 0 +64 82
2 Ath Madrid 32 21 8 3 +39 71
3 Valencia 32 20 5 7 +27 65
4 Real Madrid 31 19 7 5 +43 64
5 Betis 32 16 4 12 +0 52
6 Villarreal 32 14 6 12 +4 48
7 Sevilla 32 14 5 13 -11 47
8 Girona 32 12 8 12 -5 44
9 Celta 32 12 7 13 +6 43
10 Getafe 32 11 9 12 +6 42
11 Sociedad 32 11 7 14 +5 40
12 Eibar 32 11 7 14 -10 40
13 Ath Bilbao 32 9 12 11 -3 39
14 Leganes 32 11 6 15 -12 39
15 Alaves 32 12 2 18 -16 38
16 Espanol 32 8 12 12 -13 36
17 Levante 32 6 13 13 -20 31
18 La Coruna 32 6 8 18 -33 26
19 Las Palmas 32 5 6 21 -42 21
20 Malaga 31 4 5 22 -29 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Malaga Real Madrid
29′
Isco 0–1
Federico Ricca 🟨
36′
Half-time 0–1
Bueno 🔁
↦ M. Lacen
53′
Manuel Iturra 🟨
55′
63′
Casemiro 0–2
Isco
66′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Marco Asensio
Iván Rodríguez 🔁
↦ Miquel
71′
72′
🔁 Borja Mayoral
↦ Isco
M. Lestienne 🔁
↦ B. Ideye
78′
Ivan Rodríguez 🟨
81′
Roberto Rosales 🟨
90′
1–2 D. Rolan
F. Ricca
93′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Malaga

4-1-4-1
1 Roberto Jiménez G
23 Miguel Torres D
18 R. Rosales D
2 Miquel D
15 F. Ricca D
11 G. Castro M
7 M. Iturra M
8 Adrián M
25 M. Lacen M
12 B. Ideye F
24 D. Rolan F
Bench (7)
19 Bueno
35 Iván Rodríguez
22 M. Lestienne
5 E. Rolón
13 Andrés Prieto
21 Samu
26 Y. En-Nesyri

Coach: José González

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
1 K. Navas G
4 Sergio Ramos D
2 Daniel Carvajal D
3 Jesús Vallejo D
15 T. Hernández D
14 Casemiro M
22 Isco M
23 M. Kovačić M
17 Lucas Vázquez M
20 Marco Asensio M
9 K. Benzema F
Bench (7)
24 Dani Ceballos
21 Borja Mayoral
8 T. Kroos
12 Marcelo
13 Kiko Casilla
18 Marcos Llorente
19 A. Hakimi

Coach: Z. Zidane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.