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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Milan

S T T U S

1–0

Full-time

Chievo

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Chievo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

44%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

56%

33%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

24 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 10. · Chievo 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	10	6	3	1	+3	21
2	Roma	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Napoli	9	5	3	1	+11	18
4	Fiorentina	9	6	0	3	+8	18
5	Lazio	9	6	0	3	+1	18
6	Sassuolo	9	4	3	2	+2	15
7	Sampdoria	9	4	2	3	+4	14
8	Torino	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Milan	9	4	1	4	-4	13
11	Chievo	9	3	3	3	+4	12
12	Juventus	9	3	3	3	+3	12
13	Palermo	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Empoli	9	3	1	5	-4	10
16	Genoa	9	3	1	5	-4	10
17	Frosinone	9	2	1	6	-5	7
18	Bologna	10	2	0	8	-9	6
19	Verona	9	0	5	4	-7	5
20	Carpi	9	1	2	6	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Sampdoria	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Fiorentina	5	4	0	1	+7	12
4	Roma	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Torino	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Inter	5	3	1	1	+0	10
9	Genoa	4	3	0	1	+2	9
10	Milan	4	3	0	1	-1	9
11	Juventus	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Sassuolo	4	2	2	0	+2	8
13	Chievo	5	2	1	2	+3	7
14	Empoli	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Frosinone	4	2	0	2	+1	6
16	Palermo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Carpi	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	2	0	+3	11
2	Roma	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Napoli	5	2	2	1	+4	8
4	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
5	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+1	6
7	Palermo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Chievo	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Juventus	4	1	1	2	+0	4
10	Milan	5	1	1	3	-3	4
11	Torino	5	1	1	3	-4	4
12	Atalanta	5	1	1	3	-5	4
13	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-6	3
15	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-9	3
16	Verona	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Sampdoria	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Genoa	5	0	1	4	-6	1
19	Frosinone	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Carpi	4	0	1	3	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.