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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Genoa

T T T S U

3–2

Full-time

Chievo

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Chievo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 15%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

14%

57%

Average goals

1,6

2,3

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 11

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 15. · Chievo 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Roma	8	5	2	1	+10	17
3	Inter	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Lazio	7	5	0	2	-1	15
5	Torino	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Napoli	7	3	3	1	+9	12
7	Chievo	7	3	3	1	+6	12
8	Sassuolo	7	3	3	1	+2	12
9	Sampdoria	7	3	2	2	+3	11
10	Atalanta	7	3	2	2	+0	11
11	Palermo	8	3	1	4	-2	10
12	Milan	8	3	1	4	-5	10
13	Juventus	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Genoa	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Carpi	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Verona	7	0	4	3	-4	4
19	Frosinone	7	1	1	5	-6	4
20	Bologna	8	1	0	7	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Roma	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Sampdoria	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Torino	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Inter	4	3	0	1	+0	9
7	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+6	7
8	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+3	7
10	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Milan	3	2	0	1	-2	6
12	Juventus	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Sassuolo	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Carpi	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Palermo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Frosinone	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-2	3
19	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Udinese	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	4	2	1	1	+3	7
2	Inter	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Sassuolo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Palermo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Napoli	4	1	2	1	+3	5
8	Chievo	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Torino	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Milan	5	1	1	3	-3	4
11	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Juventus	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-8	3
15	Verona	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Carpi	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Bologna	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.