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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Juventus

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,7

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 60%

53%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

40%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

38% Possession 62%

16 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 5. · Fiorentina 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	11	3	2	+13	36
2	Fiorentina	15	10	2	3	+18	32
3	Napoli	16	9	5	2	+16	32
4	Roma	16	8	5	3	+12	29
5	Juventus	15	8	3	4	+11	27
6	Sassuolo	15	7	5	3	+5	26
7	Milan	16	7	4	5	+1	25
8	Atalanta	16	7	3	6	+2	24
9	Empoli	16	7	3	6	+0	24
10	Chievo	16	6	4	6	+5	22
11	Torino	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Bologna	16	6	1	9	-4	19
13	Lazio	15	6	1	8	-7	19
14	Palermo	16	5	3	8	-7	18
15	Udinese	16	5	3	8	-10	18
16	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-4	16
17	Genoa	16	4	4	8	-6	16
18	Frosinone	16	4	2	10	-15	14
19	Carpi	16	2	4	10	-17	10
20	Verona	16	0	7	9	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+11	20
2	Fiorentina	8	6	1	1	+13	19
3	Inter	8	6	1	1	+6	19
4	Milan	8	5	2	1	+3	17
5	Roma	7	5	1	1	+9	16
6	Atalanta	7	5	1	1	+9	16
7	Lazio	8	5	1	2	+6	16
8	Torino	8	4	3	1	+6	15
9	Sassuolo	7	4	3	0	+4	15
10	Sampdoria	8	4	2	2	+5	14
11	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+5	14
12	Empoli	8	4	1	3	+2	13
13	Frosinone	8	4	1	3	+1	13
14	Genoa	8	4	1	3	+1	13
15	Chievo	8	3	2	3	+3	11
16	Palermo	9	3	2	4	-2	11
17	Bologna	8	3	1	4	+1	10
18	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-5	8
19	Carpi	8	1	3	4	-3	6
20	Verona	8	0	3	5	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	8	5	2	1	+7	17
2	Juventus	8	4	1	3	+6	13
3	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Roma	9	3	4	2	+3	13
5	Napoli	8	3	3	2	+5	12
6	Chievo	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	11
8	Empoli	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-5	10
10	Bologna	8	3	0	5	-5	9
11	Milan	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Atalanta	9	2	2	5	-7	8
13	Torino	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Palermo	7	2	1	4	-5	7
15	Verona	8	0	4	4	-7	4
16	Carpi	8	1	1	6	-14	4
17	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-7	3
18	Lazio	7	1	0	6	-13	3
19	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Frosinone	8	0	1	7	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.