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Ligue 1

Referee: Nicolas Rainville

Marseille

T S U S U

1–1

Full-time

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

35%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

41%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

4 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 10. · Gazelec FC Ajaccio 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	3	0	+32	45
2	Monaco	18	8	7	3	+2	31
3	Angers	17	8	6	3	+7	30
4	Caen	18	9	3	6	+2	30
5	Nice	18	7	5	6	+8	26
6	Lyon	17	7	5	5	+5	26
7	St Etienne	18	8	2	8	-1	26
8	Lorient	18	6	7	5	+1	25
9	Rennes	18	5	9	4	+2	24
10	Marseille	17	6	5	6	+7	23
11	Lille	18	5	8	5	+2	23
12	Nantes	18	6	5	7	-3	23
13	Montpellier	18	6	4	8	-2	22
14	Reims	18	5	6	7	-3	21
15	Bordeaux	17	5	6	6	-5	21
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	5	5	7	-3	20
17	Bastia	18	5	4	9	-6	19
18	Guingamp	18	5	4	9	-8	19
19	Toulouse	18	3	7	8	-12	16
20	Troyes	18	0	7	11	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+17	19
2	St Etienne	9	5	2	2	+6	17
3	Bordeaux	9	5	2	2	+4	17
4	Caen	9	5	1	3	-1	16
5	Lorient	9	4	3	2	+6	15
6	Bastia	9	5	0	4	+3	15
7	Montpellier	10	5	0	5	+0	15
8	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+4	14
9	Lille	9	4	2	3	+4	14
10	Angers	9	3	5	1	+2	14
11	Reims	10	3	4	3	+2	13
12	Monaco	9	3	4	2	-1	13
13	Guingamp	8	3	3	2	+3	12
14	Nantes	9	3	3	3	-1	12
15	Marseille	9	2	4	3	+6	10
16	Nice	8	3	1	4	+3	10
17	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	+1	10
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	2	4	2	+1	10
19	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	10
20	Troyes	10	0	5	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Monaco	9	5	3	1	+3	18
3	Nice	10	4	4	2	+5	16
4	Angers	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Rennes	9	3	5	1	+4	14
6	Caen	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Marseille	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Lorient	9	2	4	3	-5	10
12	Lille	9	1	6	2	-2	9
13	St Etienne	9	3	0	6	-7	9
14	Reims	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Montpellier	8	1	4	3	-2	7
16	Guingamp	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Toulouse	10	1	3	6	-13	6
18	Bordeaux	8	0	4	4	-9	4
19	Bastia	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Troyes	8	0	2	6	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.