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Eredivisie
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Utrecht
U S T T S
1–0
Full-time
Ajax
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,2
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
4,5
Scored
1,2
3,7
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+2,8
This season — Eredivisie · 13/15 matches
Win Ø 56%
31%
80%
Points per game
1,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
46%
60%
Both score Ø 55%
69%
40%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,9
Conceded
1,5
0,6
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+2,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%
10 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Utrecht 13. · Ajax 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 15 12 2 1 +34 38
2 PSV Eindhoven 16 10 5 1 +22 35
3 Feyenoord 15 11 2 2 +21 35
4 Heracles 14 8 2 4 +7 26
5 Groningen 15 7 4 4 +0 25
6 Vitesse 15 7 3 5 +14 24
7 Nijmegen 16 7 3 6 +2 24
8 Zwolle 14 6 4 4 +4 22
9 Heerenveen 16 5 5 6 -3 20
10 AZ Alkmaar 15 5 3 7 -4 18
11 Den Haag 16 3 8 5 -5 17
12 Excelsior 16 4 5 7 -8 17
13 Utrecht 13 4 4 5 -1 16
14 Roda 16 3 7 6 -15 16
15 Willem II 16 3 6 7 -2 15
16 Twente 16 3 4 9 -19 13
17 Cambuur 16 1 7 8 -24 10
18 De Graafschap 16 1 2 13 -23 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Utrecht Ajax
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 V. Fischer
↦ A. Younes
68′
🟨 Arkadiusz Milik
69′
🔁 L. Schöne
↦ A. El Ghazi
P. Joosten 🔁
↦ N. Barazite
78′
83′
🔁 D. van de Beek
↦ T. Serero
Andreas Ludwig 🟨
84′
Christian Kum 🟨
85′
1–0 Y. Ayoub
B. Ramselaar
87′
S. Amrabat 🔁
↦ B. Ramselaar
89′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Utrecht

1 R. Ruiter G
5 C. Kum D
3 R. Leeuwin D
14 T. Letschert D
6 Y. Ayoub M
7 R. Strieder M
17 S. Klaiber D
23 B. Ramselaar M
10 N. Barazite M
11 A. Ludwig M
22 S. Haller F
Bench (7)
37 P. Joosten
25 S. Amrabat
9 R. Boymans
16 F. Bednarek
20 L. Nganioni
38 D. Rosheuvel
21 K. Peterson

Ajax

1 J. Cillessen G
3 J. Veltman D
23 K. Tete D
22 J. Riedewald D
25 T. Serero M
27 N. Gudelj M
10 D. Klaassen M
6 R. Bazoer M
11 A. Younes F
9 A. Milik F
21 A. El Ghazi M
Bench (7)
7 V. Fischer
20 L. Schöne
30 D. van de Beek
2 R. van Rhijn
4 M. van der Hoorn
33 D. Boer
35 M. Dijks

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk · 131 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.