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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Lazio

S T T S S

2–4

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 44%

41%

46%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

49%

Both score Ø 52%

46%

57%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

44% Possession 56%

16 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 8. · Fiorentina 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	38	29	4	5	+55	91
2	Napoli	38	25	7	6	+48	82
3	Roma	38	23	11	4	+42	80
4	Inter	38	20	7	11	+12	67
5	Fiorentina	37	17	10	10	+16	61
6	Sassuolo	38	16	13	9	+9	61
7	Milan	38	15	12	11	+6	57
8	Lazio	37	15	9	13	+2	54
9	Chievo	38	13	11	14	-2	50
10	Genoa	38	13	7	18	-3	46
11	Empoli	38	12	10	16	-9	46
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-3	45
13	Atalanta	38	11	12	15	-6	45
14	Bologna	38	11	9	18	-12	42
15	Sampdoria	38	10	10	18	-13	40
16	Udinese	37	10	9	18	-24	39
17	Palermo	37	9	9	19	-28	36
18	Carpi	37	8	11	18	-21	35
19	Frosinone	38	8	7	23	-41	31
20	Verona	37	5	13	19	-28	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	19	16	3	0	+37	51
2	Juventus	19	16	2	1	+31	50
3	Roma	19	13	5	1	+27	44
4	Inter	19	13	2	4	+14	41
5	Fiorentina	19	11	5	3	+18	38
6	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+11	33
7	Genoa	19	10	3	6	+10	33
8	Milan	19	9	6	4	+6	33
9	Sassuolo	19	8	8	3	+5	32
10	Atalanta	19	8	6	5	+6	30
11	Chievo	19	7	8	4	+7	29
12	Sampdoria	19	8	4	7	+4	28
13	Empoli	19	7	6	6	+2	27
14	Torino	19	6	6	7	+0	24
15	Carpi	19	6	5	8	-3	23
16	Frosinone	19	6	4	9	-8	22
17	Udinese	18	6	4	8	-9	22
18	Bologna	19	5	5	9	-1	20
19	Palermo	18	5	4	9	-7	19
20	Verona	19	4	6	9	-9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	13	2	4	+24	41
2	Roma	19	10	6	3	+15	36
3	Napoli	19	9	4	6	+11	31
4	Sassuolo	19	8	5	6	+4	29
5	Inter	19	7	5	7	-2	26
6	Milan	19	6	6	7	+0	24
7	Fiorentina	18	6	5	7	-2	23
8	Bologna	19	6	4	9	-11	22
9	Torino	19	6	3	10	-3	21
10	Lazio	19	5	6	8	-9	21
11	Chievo	19	6	3	10	-9	21
12	Empoli	19	5	4	10	-11	19
13	Udinese	19	4	5	10	-15	17
14	Palermo	19	4	5	10	-21	17
15	Atalanta	19	3	6	10	-12	15
16	Genoa	19	3	4	12	-13	13
17	Sampdoria	19	2	6	11	-17	12
18	Carpi	18	2	6	10	-18	12
19	Verona	18	1	7	10	-19	10
20	Frosinone	19	2	3	14	-33	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.