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Serie A

Referee: Piero Giacomelli

Milan

U S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Cagliari

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 49%

59%

39%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

53%

83%

Both score Ø 60%

47%

72%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

29 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 7. · Cagliari 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	14	0	3	+22	42
2	Roma	19	13	2	4	+22	41
3	Napoli	19	11	5	3	+20	38
4	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+12	37
5	Atalanta	19	11	2	6	+9	35
6	Inter	19	10	3	6	+8	33
7	Milan	17	10	3	4	+7	33
8	Torino	19	8	5	6	+9	29
9	Fiorentina	18	7	6	5	+4	27
10	Udinese	19	7	4	8	-1	25
11	Chievo	19	7	4	8	-4	25
12	Genoa	19	6	5	8	-2	23
13	Sampdoria	19	6	5	8	-4	23
14	Cagliari	18	7	2	9	-15	23
15	Bologna	17	5	5	7	-5	20
16	Sassuolo	19	5	3	11	-9	18
17	Empoli	19	4	5	10	-15	17
18	Palermo	19	2	4	13	-20	10
19	Pescara	18	1	6	11	-19	9
20	Crotone	18	2	3	13	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	9	9	0	0	+20	27
2	Juventus	9	9	0	0	+18	27
3	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Lazio	10	7	1	2	+11	22
5	Torino	9	6	2	1	+11	20
6	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	20
7	Milan	9	6	2	1	+6	20
8	Cagliari	9	6	1	2	+1	19
9	Atalanta	9	6	0	3	+4	18
10	Sampdoria	9	5	2	2	+4	17
11	Fiorentina	9	4	5	0	+4	17
12	Genoa	10	4	4	2	+6	16
13	Chievo	10	4	3	3	-1	15
14	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+2	14
15	Udinese	10	4	2	4	+1	14
16	Sassuolo	9	4	1	4	-2	13
17	Empoli	10	3	2	5	-9	11
18	Crotone	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Pescara	9	0	4	5	-11	4
20	Palermo	9	0	1	8	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+5	17
2	Napoli	9	4	3	2	+8	15
3	Juventus	8	5	0	3	+4	15
4	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+1	15
5	Roma	10	4	2	4	+2	14
6	Milan	8	4	1	3	+1	13
7	Inter	10	4	1	5	-3	13
8	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-2	11
9	Fiorentina	9	3	1	5	+0	10
10	Chievo	9	3	1	5	-3	10
11	Torino	10	2	3	5	-2	9
12	Palermo	10	2	3	5	-6	9
13	Genoa	9	2	1	6	-8	7
14	Empoli	9	1	3	5	-6	6
15	Bologna	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	Sampdoria	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Sassuolo	10	1	2	7	-7	5
18	Pescara	9	1	2	6	-8	5
19	Cagliari	9	1	1	7	-16	4
20	Crotone	10	0	1	9	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.