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Serie A

Referee: Marco Di Bello

Milan

T S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Crotone

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 36%

64%

Points per game

2,1

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

70% Possession 30%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

22 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Crotone 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	12	0	3	+19	36
2	Roma	14	9	2	3	+17	29
3	Milan	14	9	2	3	+7	29
4	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+13	28
5	Napoli	15	8	4	3	+12	28
6	Atalanta	15	9	1	5	+7	28
7	Torino	14	7	4	3	+14	25
8	Inter	15	6	3	6	+1	21
9	Fiorentina	13	5	5	3	+5	20
10	Genoa	13	5	4	4	+2	19
11	Sampdoria	14	5	4	5	-3	19
12	Cagliari	14	6	1	7	-9	19
13	Chievo	14	5	3	6	-2	18
14	Bologna	14	4	4	6	-7	16
15	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-5	15
16	Sassuolo	14	4	2	8	-9	14
17	Empoli	14	2	4	8	-14	10
18	Pescara	14	1	4	9	-15	7
19	Crotone	14	1	3	10	-16	6
20	Palermo	14	1	3	10	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	8	0	0	+17	24
2	Roma	7	7	0	0	+17	21
3	Torino	7	5	2	0	+12	17
4	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+9	17
5	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Cagliari	7	5	1	1	+5	16
7	Milan	7	5	1	1	+5	16
8	Atalanta	7	5	0	2	+5	15
9	Inter	7	4	2	1	+6	14
10	Genoa	7	3	4	0	+7	13
11	Sampdoria	6	4	1	1	+3	13
12	Bologna	8	4	1	3	+2	13
13	Chievo	7	3	2	2	+1	11
14	Fiorentina	6	2	4	0	+2	10
15	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-4	9
16	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Crotone	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-12	5
19	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Palermo	7	0	0	7	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
2	Atalanta	8	4	1	3	+2	13
3	Lazio	7	3	3	1	+3	12
4	Juventus	7	4	0	3	+2	12
5	Napoli	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Fiorentina	7	3	1	3	+3	10
7	Torino	7	2	2	3	+2	8
8	Roma	7	2	2	3	+0	8
9	Chievo	7	2	1	4	-3	7
10	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Inter	8	2	1	5	-5	7
12	Palermo	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Genoa	6	2	0	4	-5	6
14	Sampdoria	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Empoli	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Pescara	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Bologna	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Cagliari	7	1	0	6	-14	3
20	Crotone	7	0	1	6	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.