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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Empoli

U T U S T

1–4

Full-time

Milan

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

15%

62%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

31%

54%

Both score Ø 27%

46%

Average goals

1,8

2,9

Scored

0,5

1,6

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Empoli 17. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	0	2	+19	33
2	Roma	13	8	2	3	+16	26
3	Milan	13	8	2	3	+4	26
4	Torino	14	7	4	3	+14	25
5	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+12	25
6	Atalanta	13	8	1	4	+7	25
7	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Fiorentina	12	5	5	2	+7	20
9	Inter	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Chievo	14	5	3	6	-2	18
11	Sampdoria	13	5	3	5	-3	18
12	Genoa	12	4	4	4	+0	16
13	Bologna	13	4	4	5	-5	16
14	Cagliari	13	5	1	7	-10	16
15	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-4	15
16	Sassuolo	13	4	1	8	-9	13
17	Empoli	13	2	4	7	-11	10
18	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-14	7
19	Palermo	13	1	3	9	-16	6
20	Crotone	13	1	2	10	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Roma	6	6	0	0	+16	18
3	Torino	7	5	2	0	+12	17
4	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+10	16
5	Milan	7	5	1	1	+5	16
6	Atalanta	7	5	0	2	+5	15
7	Napoli	6	4	1	1	+6	13
8	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	+4	13
9	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+4	13
10	Sampdoria	6	4	1	1	+3	13
11	Inter	6	3	2	1	+4	11
12	Chievo	7	3	2	2	+1	11
13	Genoa	6	2	4	0	+5	10
14	Fiorentina	6	2	4	0	+2	10
15	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-4	9
16	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Empoli	7	1	2	4	-9	5
18	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-5	4
19	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Palermo	6	0	0	6	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	6	4	0	2	+4	12
2	Napoli	7	3	2	2	+3	11
3	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+5	10
4	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Milan	6	3	1	2	-1	10
6	Lazio	6	2	3	1	+2	9
7	Torino	7	2	2	3	+2	8
8	Roma	7	2	2	3	+0	8
9	Inter	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Chievo	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Palermo	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Genoa	6	2	0	4	-5	6
14	Empoli	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Sampdoria	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Sassuolo	7	1	1	5	-5	4
17	Pescara	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bologna	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Cagliari	7	1	0	6	-14	3
20	Crotone	7	0	1	6	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.