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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Roma

U S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Milan

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

60%

53%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 24

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 2. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	0	3	+21	39
2	Roma	15	10	2	3	+19	32
3	Milan	15	10	2	3	+8	32
4	Napoli	16	9	4	3	+17	31
5	Lazio	16	9	4	3	+12	31
6	Atalanta	16	9	1	6	+5	28
7	Fiorentina	15	7	5	3	+7	26
8	Torino	16	7	4	5	+10	25
9	Inter	16	7	3	6	+3	24
10	Chievo	16	6	4	6	+0	22
11	Sampdoria	16	6	4	6	-2	22
12	Udinese	16	6	3	7	-2	21
13	Genoa	15	5	5	5	+0	20
14	Cagliari	16	6	2	8	-14	20
15	Sassuolo	16	5	2	9	-7	17
16	Bologna	16	4	5	7	-8	17
17	Empoli	16	2	5	9	-17	11
18	Crotone	16	2	3	11	-16	9
19	Pescara	16	1	5	10	-16	8
20	Palermo	16	1	3	12	-20	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	8	0	0	+17	24
2	Roma	7	7	0	0	+17	21
3	Milan	8	6	1	1	+6	19
4	Torino	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+9	17
6	Inter	8	5	2	1	+8	17
7	Lazio	8	5	1	2	+8	16
8	Sampdoria	8	5	1	2	+4	16
9	Fiorentina	8	4	4	0	+4	16
10	Cagliari	8	5	1	2	+0	16
11	Atalanta	8	5	0	3	+3	15
12	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+2	14
13	Genoa	7	3	4	0	+7	13
14	Chievo	8	3	3	2	+1	12
15	Sassuolo	7	4	0	3	-1	12
16	Udinese	8	3	2	3	+0	11
17	Crotone	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-12	5
19	Pescara	8	0	4	4	-8	4
20	Palermo	8	0	0	8	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	8	4	3	1	+4	15
2	Juventus	8	5	0	3	+4	15
3	Napoli	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Milan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Atalanta	8	4	1	3	+2	13
6	Roma	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Fiorentina	7	3	1	3	+3	10
8	Chievo	8	3	1	4	-1	10
9	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-2	10
10	Torino	8	2	2	4	+0	8
11	Inter	8	2	1	5	-5	7
12	Genoa	8	2	1	5	-7	7
13	Empoli	8	1	3	4	-5	6
14	Sampdoria	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Palermo	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Sassuolo	9	1	2	6	-6	5
17	Pescara	8	1	1	6	-8	4
18	Cagliari	8	1	1	6	-14	4
19	Bologna	7	0	3	4	-10	3
20	Crotone	8	0	1	7	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.