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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Mainz

T T S T U

1–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 41%

35%

47%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

76%

59%

Both score Ø 68%

65%

71%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 11. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	18	14	3	1	+31	45
2	RB Leipzig	18	13	3	2	+20	42
3	Ein Frankfurt	18	9	5	4	+8	32
4	Hoffenheim	18	7	10	1	+12	31
5	Dortmund	17	8	6	3	+17	30
6	Hertha	18	9	3	6	+5	30
7	FC Koln	18	7	8	3	+11	29
8	Freiburg	18	8	2	8	-6	26
9	Leverkusen	18	7	3	8	+0	24
10	Schalke 04	18	6	3	9	+1	21
11	Mainz	17	6	3	8	-4	21
12	Augsburg	18	5	6	7	-5	21
13	M'gladbach	18	5	5	8	-9	20
14	Wolfsburg	18	5	4	9	-9	19
15	Werder Bremen	18	4	4	10	-16	16
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	18	4	3	11	-12	15
17	Hamburg	18	3	4	11	-20	13
18	Darmstadt	18	2	3	13	-24	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+22	23
3	Hertha	8	7	0	1	+11	21
4	Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+13	18
5	Ein Frankfurt	8	5	3	0	+7	18
6	Freiburg	9	6	0	3	+0	18
7	Hoffenheim	9	4	5	0	+7	17
8	FC Koln	8	4	4	0	+9	16
9	Schalke 04	10	5	1	4	+6	16
10	M'gladbach	9	4	3	2	+5	15
11	Mainz	8	4	2	2	+4	14
12	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
13	Werder Bremen	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Darmstadt	10	2	3	5	-8	9
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-7	8
18	Hamburg	8	2	2	4	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	7	1	1	+9	22
2	RB Leipzig	9	5	2	2	+7	17
3	Hoffenheim	9	3	5	1	+5	14
4	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	2	4	+1	14
5	FC Koln	10	3	4	3	+2	13
6	Dortmund	9	3	3	3	+4	12
7	Augsburg	9	3	3	3	+1	12
8	Wolfsburg	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Leverkusen	8	3	1	4	-1	10
10	Hertha	10	2	3	5	-6	9
11	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-6	8
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	2	1	6	-7	7
13	Mainz	9	2	1	6	-8	7
14	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-12	6
15	Schalke 04	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Hamburg	10	1	2	7	-11	5
17	M'gladbach	9	1	2	6	-14	5
18	Darmstadt	8	0	0	8	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.