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Serie A
Referee: Carmine Russo
Atalanta
T S S U U
3–2
Full-time
Bologna
S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,3
2,0
Scored
1,8
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 42%
56%
28%
Points per game
1,9
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
56%
34%
Both score Ø 46%
50%
41%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,7
0,9
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,6
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

50% Possession 50%
5 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 3
2 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Bologna 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 32 26 2 4 +44 80
2 Roma 32 23 3 6 +43 72
3 Napoli 32 21 7 4 +42 70
4 Lazio 32 18 7 7 +18 61
5 Atalanta 32 18 6 8 +18 60
6 Milan 32 17 7 8 +14 58
7 Inter 32 17 5 10 +22 56
8 Fiorentina 32 14 10 8 +9 52
9 Torino 32 11 12 9 +7 45
10 Sampdoria 32 12 9 11 +1 45
11 Udinese 32 11 7 14 -2 40
12 Chievo 32 11 5 16 -14 38
13 Cagliari 32 11 5 16 -17 38
14 Sassuolo 32 10 5 17 -10 35
15 Bologna 32 9 8 15 -17 35
16 Genoa 32 7 9 16 -21 30
17 Empoli 32 6 8 18 -30 26
18 Crotone 32 5 6 21 -26 21
19 Palermo 32 3 7 22 -42 16
20 Pescara 32 2 8 22 -39 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Bologna
1–0 A. Conti
A. Gómez
3′
2–0 R. Freuler
A. Petagna
14′
16′
M. Destro 2–1
F. Di Francesco
B. Cristante 🔁
↦ F. Kessié
22′
Mattia Caldara 🟨
43′
44′
🟨 Blerim Džemaili
Half-time 2–1
51′
🟨 Daniele Gastaldello
57′
🟨 Ibrahima Mbaye
61′
F. Di Francesco 2–2
B. Džemaili
M. D'Alessandro 🔁
↦ Rafael Tolói
63′
A. Grassi 🔁
↦ A. Petagna
72′
74′
🔁 E. Krafth
↦ I. Mbaye
3–2 M. Caldara
B. Cristante
75′
Andrea Masiello 🟨
78′
78′
🔁 O. Okwonkwo
↦ L. Krejčí
83′
🔁 B. Petković
↦ F. Viviani
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 E. Berisha G
5 A. Masiello D
3 Rafael Tolói D
24 A. Conti M
13 M. Caldara D
10 A. Gómez F
11 R. Freuler M
27 J. Kurtič M
37 L. Spinazzola M
19 F. Kessié M
29 A. Petagna F
Bench (12)
4 B. Cristante
7 M. D'Alessandro
88 A. Grassi
8 G. Migliaccio
25 A. Konko
33 H. Hateboer
43 A. Paloschi
52 B. Cabezas
77 C. Raimondi
87 A. Mounier
91 P. Gollini
9 A. Pešić

Coach: G. Gasperini

Bologna

4-2-3-1
1 Angelo da Costa G
28 D. Gastaldello D
20 D. Maietta D
15 I. M'baye D
25 A. Masina D
31 B. Džemaili M
8 S. Taïder M
6 F. Viviani M
10 M. Destro F
11 L. Krejčí M
14 F. Di Francesco F
Bench (8)
4 E. Krafth
30 O. Okwonkwo
21 B. Petković
2 M. Oikonomou
17 G. Donsah
19 S. Umar
34 F. Ravaglia
75 E. Monari

Coach: R. Donadoni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Carmine Russo · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
15,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.