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Serie A

Referee: Nicola Rizzoli

Milan

U S U T U

1–4

Full-time

Roma

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 61%

50%

71%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

53%

68%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

53%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 24

2 Shots on target 10

6 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Roma 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	27	4	4	+48	85
2	Napoli	35	23	8	4	+45	77
3	Roma	34	24	3	7	+44	75
4	Lazio	35	21	7	7	+28	70
5	Atalanta	35	19	8	8	+19	65
6	Milan	34	17	8	9	+13	59
7	Inter	35	17	5	13	+19	56
8	Fiorentina	35	15	11	9	+8	56
9	Torino	35	12	14	9	+9	50
10	Sampdoria	35	12	10	13	-4	46
11	Udinese	35	12	8	15	-5	44
12	Chievo	35	12	6	17	-15	42
13	Cagliari	35	12	5	18	-19	41
14	Sassuolo	35	11	7	17	-8	40
15	Bologna	35	10	8	17	-16	38
16	Genoa	35	8	9	18	-25	33
17	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-29	32
18	Crotone	35	7	7	21	-24	28
19	Palermo	35	4	8	23	-44	20
20	Pescara	35	2	8	25	-44	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	17	1	0	+36	52
2	Roma	17	14	1	2	+29	43
3	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+22	40
4	Lazio	18	12	2	4	+19	38
5	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+12	36
6	Milan	17	11	2	4	+12	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	7	1	+10	34
8	Inter	17	10	3	4	+20	33
9	Torino	17	8	8	1	+15	32
10	Cagliari	17	9	3	5	+2	30
11	Sampdoria	17	8	5	4	+7	29
12	Udinese	18	8	4	6	+7	28
13	Bologna	17	7	2	8	-2	23
14	Chievo	18	6	5	7	-3	23
15	Genoa	18	5	7	6	-1	22
16	Sassuolo	18	6	3	9	-5	21
17	Empoli	18	5	4	9	-12	19
18	Crotone	17	4	4	9	-7	16
19	Palermo	17	2	3	12	-19	9
20	Pescara	18	1	5	12	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+23	37
2	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+12	33
3	Roma	17	10	2	5	+15	32
4	Lazio	17	9	5	3	+9	32
5	Atalanta	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	24
7	Inter	18	7	2	9	-1	23
8	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	-2	22
9	Sassuolo	17	5	4	8	-3	19
10	Chievo	17	6	1	10	-12	19
11	Torino	18	4	6	8	-6	18
12	Sampdoria	18	4	5	9	-11	17
13	Udinese	17	4	4	9	-12	16
14	Bologna	18	3	6	9	-14	15
15	Empoli	17	3	4	10	-17	13
16	Crotone	18	3	3	12	-17	12
17	Cagliari	18	3	2	13	-21	11
18	Genoa	17	3	2	12	-24	11
19	Palermo	18	2	5	11	-25	11
20	Pescara	17	1	3	13	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.