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Serie A

Referee: Claudio Gavillucci

Milan

T S U S U

1–2

Full-time

Empoli

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Empoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 36%

53%

19%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

53%

38%

Both score Ø 41%

53%

28%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,6

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

28 Shots 11

12 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 11

10 Corners 4

4 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Empoli 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	26	2	4	+44	80
2	Roma	32	23	3	6	+43	72
3	Napoli	33	21	8	4	+42	71
4	Atalanta	33	19	6	8	+19	63
5	Lazio	32	18	7	7	+18	61
6	Milan	32	17	7	8	+14	58
7	Inter	33	17	5	11	+21	56
8	Fiorentina	33	15	10	8	+10	55
9	Torino	32	11	12	9	+7	45
10	Sampdoria	32	12	9	11	+1	45
11	Udinese	32	11	7	14	-2	40
12	Chievo	32	11	5	16	-14	38
13	Cagliari	32	11	5	16	-17	38
14	Sassuolo	33	10	6	17	-10	36
15	Bologna	33	9	8	16	-18	35
16	Genoa	32	7	9	16	-21	30
17	Empoli	32	6	8	18	-30	26
18	Crotone	32	5	6	21	-26	21
19	Palermo	32	3	7	22	-42	16
20	Pescara	32	2	8	22	-39	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	16	0	0	+32	48
2	Roma	16	14	1	1	+31	43
3	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+20	37
4	Milan	16	11	2	3	+13	35
5	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+12	35
6	Fiorentina	17	9	7	1	+10	34
7	Inter	16	10	3	3	+21	33
8	Lazio	16	10	2	4	+11	32
9	Torino	16	8	7	1	+15	31
10	Sampdoria	16	8	5	3	+8	29
11	Cagliari	16	8	3	5	+1	27
12	Udinese	16	7	3	6	+6	24
13	Chievo	16	6	4	6	-1	22
14	Sassuolo	17	6	2	9	-5	20
15	Bologna	16	6	2	8	-6	20
16	Genoa	16	4	7	5	-1	19
17	Empoli	16	4	4	8	-12	16
18	Crotone	16	4	3	9	-7	15
19	Pescara	16	1	5	10	-17	8
20	Palermo	16	1	3	12	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	16	10	4	2	+22	34
2	Juventus	16	10	2	4	+12	32
3	Roma	16	9	2	5	+12	29
4	Lazio	16	8	5	3	+7	29
5	Atalanta	17	8	4	5	+7	28
6	Milan	16	6	5	5	+1	23
7	Inter	17	7	2	8	+0	23
8	Fiorentina	16	6	3	7	+0	21
9	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-5	16
10	Sampdoria	16	4	4	8	-7	16
11	Udinese	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Chievo	16	5	1	10	-13	16
13	Bologna	17	3	6	8	-12	15
14	Torino	16	3	5	8	-8	14
15	Cagliari	16	3	2	11	-18	11
16	Genoa	16	3	2	11	-20	11
17	Empoli	16	2	4	10	-18	10
18	Palermo	16	2	4	10	-21	10
19	Crotone	16	1	3	12	-19	6
20	Pescara	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.