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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Lazio

U S S S T

1–2

Full-time

Genoa

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,8

0,7

Scored

3,0

0,3

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 44%

64%

23%

Points per game

2,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

86%

23%

Both score Ø 53%

73%

32%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,6

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

22 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 3. · Genoa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	23	19	3	1	+36	60
2	Juventus	23	19	2	2	+44	59
3	Lazio	22	14	4	4	+30	46
4	Inter	23	12	9	2	+20	45
5	Roma	23	13	5	5	+16	44
6	Sampdoria	23	11	5	7	+10	38
7	Atalanta	23	10	6	7	+8	36
8	Milan	23	10	5	8	+0	35
9	Udinese	23	10	3	10	+4	33
10	Torino	23	7	12	4	+4	33
11	Fiorentina	23	8	7	8	+4	31
12	Bologna	23	8	3	12	-7	27
13	Cagliari	23	7	3	13	-12	24
14	Chievo	23	5	7	11	-19	22
15	Sassuolo	23	6	4	13	-27	22
16	Genoa	22	5	6	11	-8	21
17	Crotone	23	5	5	13	-22	20
18	Spal	23	3	8	12	-19	17
19	Verona	23	4	4	15	-24	16
20	Benevento	23	2	1	20	-38	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+26	31
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+18	26
3	Sampdoria	12	8	2	2	+16	26
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
5	Roma	12	7	1	4	+6	22
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+17	20
8	Milan	11	6	2	3	+1	20
9	Torino	11	4	5	2	+7	17
10	Udinese	12	5	2	5	+4	17
11	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+2	16
12	Cagliari	12	4	1	7	-4	13
13	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-4	13
14	Bologna	12	3	3	6	-3	12
15	Crotone	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	Spal	11	2	5	4	-5	11
17	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-7	8
19	Verona	12	2	1	9	-15	7
20	Benevento	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	11	1	0	+18	34
2	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+10	22
5	Inter	11	5	5	1	+7	20
6	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+0	16
7	Torino	12	3	7	2	-3	16
8	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+2	15
9	Atalanta	11	4	3	4	+0	15
10	Milan	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-4	15
12	Genoa	11	3	4	4	-1	13
13	Sassuolo	12	4	1	7	-18	13
14	Sampdoria	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Verona	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Chievo	12	2	3	7	-15	9
18	Crotone	12	2	2	8	-16	8
19	Spal	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.