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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Spal

T T U T T

2–1

Full-time

Roma

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 34%

19%

48%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

44%

63%

Both score Ø 56%

48%

63%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 16. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	27	24	3	0	+42	75
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+27	57
3	Milan	27	14	9	4	+18	51
4	Inter	27	15	5	7	+18	50
5	Roma	27	13	8	6	+14	47
6	Atalanta	27	13	5	9	+18	44
7	Torino	27	11	11	5	+12	44
8	Sampdoria	28	12	6	10	+11	42
9	Lazio	26	12	6	8	+9	42
10	Fiorentina	28	8	13	7	+8	37
11	Parma	27	9	6	12	-11	33
12	Sassuolo	28	7	11	10	-8	32
13	Genoa	27	7	9	11	-10	30
14	Cagliari	28	7	9	12	-15	30
15	Udinese	26	6	7	13	-14	25
16	Spal	27	5	8	14	-18	23
17	Empoli	27	5	7	15	-19	22
18	Bologna	27	4	9	14	-18	21
19	Frosinone	27	3	8	16	-31	17
20	Chievo	27	1	10	16	-33	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Napoli	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+15	29
5	Roma	13	8	4	1	+13	28
6	Torino	13	8	1	4	+8	25
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Cagliari	14	6	6	2	+5	24
9	Sampdoria	13	7	2	4	+10	23
10	Fiorentina	13	5	6	2	+9	21
11	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+9	21
12	Genoa	14	5	6	3	+2	21
13	Sassuolo	15	4	7	4	-4	19
14	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-1	18
15	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Parma	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Spal	13	2	6	5	-7	12
19	Chievo	14	1	5	8	-14	8
20	Frosinone	13	0	5	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	12	1	0	+19	37
2	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+7	24
3	Atalanta	14	7	2	5	+9	23
4	Milan	13	5	6	2	+7	21
5	Inter	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	Torino	14	3	10	1	+4	19
7	Sampdoria	15	5	4	6	+1	19
8	Roma	14	5	4	5	+1	19
9	Lazio	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Parma	13	5	2	6	-5	17
11	Fiorentina	15	3	7	5	-1	16
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-4	13
13	Frosinone	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Spal	14	3	2	9	-11	11
15	Genoa	13	2	3	8	-12	9
16	Bologna	14	1	5	8	-11	8
17	Udinese	12	1	4	7	-10	7
18	Cagliari	14	1	3	10	-20	6
19	Chievo	13	0	5	8	-19	5
20	Empoli	13	0	4	9	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.