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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Inter

T S S U T

2–0

Full-time

Spal

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

54%

19%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 43%

35%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 7

17 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 4. · Spal 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	27	24	3	0	+42	75
2	Napoli	26	17	5	4	+27	56
3	Milan	27	14	9	4	+18	51
4	Inter	26	14	5	7	+16	47
5	Roma	26	12	8	6	+13	44
6	Atalanta	26	12	5	9	+17	41
7	Torino	26	10	11	5	+11	41
8	Lazio	25	12	5	8	+9	41
9	Sampdoria	26	11	6	9	+10	39
10	Fiorentina	26	8	12	6	+9	36
11	Parma	27	9	6	12	-11	33
12	Sassuolo	26	7	10	9	-6	31
13	Genoa	27	7	9	11	-10	30
14	Cagliari	27	6	9	12	-16	27
15	Udinese	26	6	7	13	-14	25
16	Spal	26	5	8	13	-16	23
17	Empoli	26	5	7	14	-18	22
18	Bologna	27	4	9	14	-18	21
19	Frosinone	26	3	8	15	-30	17
20	Chievo	27	1	10	16	-33	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Napoli	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	30
4	Inter	12	8	2	2	+13	26
5	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
6	Torino	13	8	1	4	+8	25
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Sampdoria	12	7	2	3	+11	23
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+9	21
10	Cagliari	13	5	6	2	+4	21
11	Genoa	14	5	6	3	+2	21
12	Fiorentina	12	5	5	2	+9	20
13	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	-2	18
15	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Parma	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Spal	13	2	6	5	-7	12
19	Chievo	14	1	5	8	-14	8
20	Frosinone	12	0	5	7	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	12	1	0	+19	37
2	Napoli	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Milan	13	5	6	2	+7	21
4	Inter	14	6	3	5	+3	21
5	Atalanta	13	6	2	5	+8	20
6	Roma	14	5	4	5	+1	19
7	Lazio	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Parma	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Torino	13	2	10	1	+3	16
10	Fiorentina	14	3	7	4	+0	16
11	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-1	16
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-4	13
13	Frosinone	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Spal	13	3	2	8	-9	11
15	Genoa	13	2	3	8	-12	9
16	Bologna	14	1	5	8	-11	8
17	Udinese	12	1	4	7	-10	7
18	Cagliari	14	1	3	10	-20	6
19	Chievo	13	0	5	8	-19	5
20	Empoli	12	0	4	8	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.