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Ligue 1
Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles
Metz
U U S T T
2–2
Full-time
Caen
T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Caen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
2,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,7
-1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 31/32 matches
Win Ø 29%
29%
28%
Points per game
1,1
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
58%
41%
Both score Ø 33%
32%
34%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
0,9
1,0
Conceded
1,9
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%
8 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 2
12 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Metz 15. · Caen 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Monaco 31 23 5 3 +62 74
2 Paris SG 32 23 5 4 +45 74
3 Nice 33 21 10 2 +28 73
4 Lyon 32 17 3 12 +26 54
5 Bordeaux 32 13 10 9 +7 49
6 Marseille 32 13 9 10 +6 48
7 St Etienne 31 11 12 8 +10 45
8 Nantes 32 11 9 12 -15 42
9 Toulouse 32 10 11 11 +0 41
10 Guingamp 32 11 8 13 -5 41
11 Rennes 32 9 13 10 -8 40
12 Angers 33 11 6 16 -11 39
13 Lille 32 10 7 15 -8 37
14 Montpellier 32 9 9 14 -10 36
15 Metz 31 9 8 14 -30 35
16 Caen 32 9 5 18 -23 32
17 Nancy 33 8 7 18 -19 31
18 Lorient 32 9 4 19 -25 31
19 Dijon 32 6 11 15 -10 29
20 Bastia 32 6 10 16 -20 28

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Dec -16 Caen – Metz 3–0

Match report

Metz Caen
10′
🔁 I. Diomandé
↦ R. Genevois
Half-time 0–0
56′
🟨 Jordan Adeoti
I. Sarr 🔁
↦ O. NGuette
64′
1–0 I. Sarr
Iván
65′
74′
I. Santini 1–1
V. Bessat
78′
🔁 S. Ben Youssef
↦ N. Seube
2–1 C. Diabaté
Iván
83′
M. Erdinç 🔁
↦ C. Diabaté
87′
88′
R. Rodelin 2–2
J. Delaplace
Milan Biševac 🟨
90′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Metz

4-2-3-1
1 T. Didillon G
13 F. Signorino D
4 M. Biševac D
6 S. Falette D
25 Iván D
24 R. Cohade M
14 G. Mandjeck M
8 Y. Jouffre M
10 C. Doukouré M
18 C. Diabaté F
11 O. N'Guette F
Bench (7)
26 I. Sarr
9 M. Erdinç
2 F. Diagne
3 J. Rivierez
5 G. Milán
22 K. Lejeune
30 D. Oberhauser

Coach: P. Hinschberger

Caen

4-1-4-1
1 R. Vercoutre G
28 D. Da Silva D
29 R. Genevois D
2 N. Seube M
11 V. Bessat D
25 J. Féret M
6 J. Delaplace M
18 J. Adéoti M
12 R. Rodelin F
26 I. Santini F
7 Y. Karamoh F
Bench (7)
4 I. Diomandé
13 S. Ben Youssef
32 J. Tell
15 E. Imorou
17 J. Makengo
22 P. Sané
40 M. Dreyer

Coach: P. Garande

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Bartolomeu Varela Teles · 41 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
13,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.