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Bundesliga
Referee: Christian Dingert
Hoffenheim
U S S S T
5–3
Full-time
M'gladbach
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 43%
46%
39%
Points per game
1,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
54%
50%
Both score Ø 55%
64%
46%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

49% Possession 51%
16 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 1
3 Offside 6
6 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 3. · M'gladbach 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 28 21 5 2 +56 68
2 RB Leipzig 28 18 4 6 +21 58
3 Hoffenheim 28 13 12 3 +23 51
4 Dortmund 28 14 8 6 +27 50
5 Hertha 28 13 4 11 +3 43
6 Freiburg 28 12 5 11 -11 41
7 FC Koln 28 10 10 8 +7 40
8 M'gladbach 28 11 6 11 -2 39
9 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 8 10 -2 38
10 Schalke 04 28 10 7 11 +5 37
11 Werder Bremen 28 10 6 12 -4 36
12 Leverkusen 28 10 5 13 -2 35
13 Hamburg 28 9 6 13 -23 33
14 Wolfsburg 28 8 6 14 -15 30
15 Mainz 28 8 5 15 -11 29
16 Augsburg 28 7 8 13 -19 29
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 28 8 4 16 -16 28
18 Darmstadt 28 4 3 21 -37 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim M'gladbach
1–0 Á. Szalai
9′
2–0 Á. Szalai
S. Rudy
24′
26′
🟨 Lars Stindl
Benjamin Hübner 🟨
30′
31′
J. Vestergaard 2–1
T. Strobl
35′
L. Stindl 2–2
M. Dahoud
45′
🟨 Nico Elvedi
Half-time 2–2
48′
🟨 Andreas Christensen
3–2 K. Demirbay
58′
63′
🟨 Mahmoud Dahoud
M. Uth 🔁
↦ S. Wagner
63′
Kevin Vogt 🟨
64′
N. Amiri 🔁
↦ Á. Szalai
74′
74′
🔁 P. Herrmann
↦ I. Traoré
74′
🔁 J. Drmic
↦ A. Hahn
4–2 M. Uth
N. Süle
75′
78′
M. Dahoud 4–3
E. Bičakčić 🔁
↦ B. Hübner
85′
85′
🔁 L. Bénes
↦ T. Strobl
5–3 K. Demirbay
A. Kramarić
89′
Full-time 5–3

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

3-1-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
21 B. Hübner D
15 J. Toljan D
25 N. Süle D
6 S. Rudy M
17 S. Zuber M
22 K. Vogt D
13 K. Demirbay M
14 S. Wagner F
28 Á. Szalai F
27 A. Kramarić F
Bench (7)
19 M. Uth
18 N. Amiri
4 E. Bičakčić
7 L. Rupp
8 E. Polanski
16 P. Schwegler
36 G. Kobel

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

M'gladbach

4-2-3-1
1 Y. Sommer G
17 O. Wendt D
4 J. Vestergaard D
3 A. Christensen D
30 N. Elvedi D
16 I. Traoré M
5 T. Strobl M
23 J. Hofmann M
8 M. Dahoud M
13 L. Stindl F
28 A. Hahn F
Bench (7)
7 P. Herrmann
9 J. Drmic
22 L. Bénes
14 N. Schulz
21 T. Sippel
25 T. Kolodziejczak
27 J. Korb

Coach: D. Hecking

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Christian Dingert · 74 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.